A state of caution prevails over the near-term outlook for gold prices, in light of the continued fluctuations that dominate the global ounce and its inability to exit its current trading range. This comes as investors await developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and the inflationary fears it raises and the possibilities of tightening monetary policy at the global level.
Technically, the ounce is facing an initial resistance area at $4,080, followed by resistance at $4,124, reaching a stronger level at $4,143. On the other hand, support levels appear at $4,000, followed by $3,980, and then $3,955. The success of the ounce in breaching the $4,200 barrier is likely to restore upward momentum and target the $4,500 level before the end of this year, while breaking the $4,000 support and deepening the price correction may lead to a decline towards $3,950 and then $3,900.
In the futures market, buyers are expected to intensify their pressure to push the ounce beyond the $4,200 level, in exchange for efforts by sellers to break the $3,900 level. As the bullish momentum continues, the ounce faces initial resistance at $4,100 followed by $4,164, while support emerges at $4,050 then $4,015 if selling pressures escalate.
Regarding the factors driving gold during the rest of 2026, Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zai Capital Markets, believes that the trends of the yellow metal will be determined by the balance of forces between continued inflation and pressures resulting from the possibility of interest rates remaining high.
Aslam explained that the level of $4,154 per ounce represents the most important support, while the level of $4,179 constitutes immediate resistance, stressing the need to monitor bond yields, the strength of the dollar, and the directions of central banks, in addition to developments in global energy supplies. He pointed out that the continued decline in real returns may motivate investment institutions to diversify their portfolios in favor of gold, while expectations of monetary tightening may push prices towards movement in a sideways range, so that inflation uncertainty, geopolitical hedging, and monetary policy changes will remain the most prominent factors affecting prices until the end of 2026.
