Danny Haddad – Mtv
The gray transitional phase between wars and the consolidation of peace may be somewhat long, and it is linked to several factors, most of which Lebanon cannot control.
The Lebanese-Israeli negotiations are witnessing a state of stalemate on the political and military levels, according to what an official Lebanese source reveals. It seems clear that Benjamin Netanyahu was able to hold the American and Iranian sides by the hand that hurts them. He conveyed a clear message to them: Since you concluded an agreement without me, and formed a tripartite committee that includes Lebanon to monitor the ceasefire, the Iranian side may have fallen into a trap when it linked its approval of the agreement to the ceasefire and Israel’s withdrawal. Thus, Netanyahu found himself facing a card that he could use: if he wanted to escalate, Iran would be forced to respond, and the agreement would be dropped. But if Iran avoids responding, this means it is reneging on its conditions.
Based on this reality, the official Lebanese source asserts that Israel is interested in obstructing the course of the negotiations, without it being known, yet, whether Netanyahu will succeed in his mission.
On a parallel level, the US administration seems keen to reassure the Lebanese side that any agreement will not be at its expense. Hence the joint call made by US Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to President Joseph Aoun, during which he assured the Lebanese president of the US administration’s support for the independence of the Lebanese track. The two American officials acknowledged, according to MTV website information, the impact of the Iranian file on the Lebanese reality, due to Hezbollah’s complete connection to Iran. However, the United States of America seeks to use this influence to stop financing and arming the “party.” This is a red line that cannot be conceded, and the American side has confirmed that it is a matter of agreement with all the countries concerned with the Lebanese affairs, especially the Arab countries.
The source indicates that there will never be a return to the decision to disarm Hezbollah and dismantle its military structure, something that Lebanon has been informed of by more than one Arab and Western official. Vance and Rubio also renewed their confidence in President Joseph Aoun and their bet on the state’s choice by strengthening its presence and power.
It seems clear that the negotiating path will be long, and that there will be no return to the presence of the military party that was prevalent before the start of the support war on October 8, 2023, just as there will never be a return to the political influence of Hezbollah, outside the constitutional institutions. Note that the President of the Republic avoids practicing a policy of challenge with the “party,” and is keen on communicating what he considers a “national and realistic duty,” through the approved communication channel with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is informed of every step, as well as the results of the negotiations.
However, the official source asserts that there will be no meeting soon with the President of the Republic, neither with Berri nor with representatives of Hezbollah.
