“Lebanon Debate”
At a time when political and security contacts are intensifying aimed at breaking the stalemate prevailing over the course of negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, and in this context, the visit of the American Ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, to Israel and his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is gaining special importance, as it comes at a critical moment regionally and locally, and in light of American efforts to reopen channels of communication between Beirut and Tel Aviv, and narrow the area of differences that prevented the negotiations from moving to a more advanced stage.
Available data indicate that the previous rounds of negotiations discussed a group of files related to the situation on the southern border and mechanisms for stabilizing the calm and dealing with violations and attacks. However, the seventh round collided with complications that prevented achieving a clear breakthrough. The negotiations then entered a stage of stagnation, while the field remained open to the possibilities of escalation.
In this context, a senior diplomatic source reveals to “Lebanon Debate” that the first fruits of Issa’s visit to Washington were, according to preliminary data, an agreement to hand over a batch of prisoners to Lebanon, and the process of handing over a number of them has begun, with the number reaching 5.
As for the frozen negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, and in light of the complications witnessed in the seventh round, the source indicates that the ongoing discussions in Tel Aviv address the possibility of holding a security meeting in Rome, in addition to another political meeting in the United States, which may be held on September 14 or 15, without its official date being set yet, as part of the efforts aimed at reviving the negotiating track and getting it out of the state of stagnation.
According to the source, during his visit to Tel Aviv, Ambassador Michel Issa carried messages from the Lebanese side to the Israeli side, and in return he carried Israeli messages to the Lebanese side, as part of a message exchange process that took place through the American channel, in an attempt to open a loophole in the existing wall of stalemate and move from the stage of indirect messages to the resumption of communications and meetings.
This diplomatic movement, according to observers’ reading, is not separate from the rapid field developments in Lebanon and the region, as the continued Israeli escalation in the south, in addition to the rising level of regional tension, places the American administration before the need to contain the path before it turns into a broader confrontation that is difficult to control, especially since any major escalation may undermine the achieved contacts and return the negotiations to point zero.
In this context, Washington seems concerned with keeping communication channels open between Lebanon and Israel, and trying to produce a path that allows the outstanding points to be addressed gradually, whether through security or political meetings, or through the continued exchange of messages by the American side.
This movement gains additional importance in light of the upcoming electoral elections in both Israel and the United States, as the electoral factor enters the line of political and security calculations. The Israeli government, led by Netanyahu, is aware of the sensitivity of the stage and the repercussions that any widespread escalation could have on the Israeli interior, while the American administration seeks to manage the regional files in a way that prevents a new explosion in the region, at a time when American electoral calculations impose themselves on foreign policy priorities.
Hence, the attempt to break the stalemate does not seem separate from the race over time, as continued stagnation may raise the level of field risks, while any negotiating breakthrough, even limited, constitutes an opportunity to re-establish a political and security path that can be built upon later.
The source points out that Issa’s visit and his meeting with Netanyahu come within the framework of an ongoing diplomatic movement, the primary goal of which appears to be to break the impasse and relaunch the negotiating path, amid multilateral contacts and security and political consultations, the results of which are expected to crystallize in the coming days.
While the dates proposed for the eighth round remain officially undecided, the available data indicate that contacts have not stopped, and that communication channels are still open, with work continuing to confirm the dates of the upcoming meetings, amid talk of possible security and political meetings in Rome and the United States.
Thus, it seems that the next stage will witness an actual test of the extent of the ability of American mediation to transform the exchange of messages into practical steps, and to relaunch negotiations after the seventh round, at a time when developments on the ground in the south overlap with the broader regional scene, and electoral elections in Israel and the United States impose an additional rhythm on the political movement.
