“Lebanon Debate”
At a very complex regional stage, Lebanon faces overlapping entitlements between the diplomatic track and the field, while the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations remain hostage to Israeli developments and intentions and the American role, coinciding with regional transformations that may redraw the map of balances from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Internally, the files of the state, economy, investment and reconstruction are progressing, amid attempts to open new channels with Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at a time when the repercussions of the war and Israeli attacks are still weighing heavily on the Lebanese scene.
Between cautious optimism and warning of the worst, writer and political analyst Wajdi Al-Aridi provided a comprehensive reading of the stage, from the future of negotiations to the performance of the state, the role of the army, investment and reconstruction.
Al-Aridi said in an interview with “Lebanon Debate” that the next few days will be “critical,” considering that Lebanon is facing “wasted time, but deadly time,” in light of the approaching Israeli elections and the American midterm elections.
Al-Aridi reveals that the data available to him “indicate that the Americans gave the green light to Israel to occupy Ali Al-Taher Hill or carry out military action in the event of a specific target,” suggesting at the same time that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will implement a “specific operation” ahead of the Israeli elections with the aim of achieving some achievement.
However, Al-Aridi called for the Lebanese not to be immersed in an atmosphere of pessimism, considering that “things are between and between,” in other words, there is an ongoing race between the diplomatic track and field work.
However, in a careful reading of the regional scene, Al-Aridi said that the information, data, and reports reaching Lebanon indicate the existence of a connected graphic line from Lebanon to Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, considering that “things have changed, and the cards may be recreated again.”
He pointed out that Lebanon was able to separate the Iranian file from the Lebanese file, so that Lebanon, as he put it, became the one negotiating its own file, not Iran or Hezbollah. However, he saw in return that “any progress on the path of the Iranian-American negotiation will be positively affected by Lebanon.”
He pointed out that the picture so far is “complex and difficult,” as there is a blurry picture from Islamabad to Rome and Washington, in reference to the interference of the Lebanese-Israeli negotiations under American auspices with the American-Iranian track.
He added that, in his estimation, Israel will continue “the bombing operation it carries out on a daily basis, and perhaps more than that.”
Against this background, Al-Aridi believed that “the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, is not to be blamed if negotiations or otherwise are disrupted,” noting that negotiations in the various international experiments that take place during or after wars require a long time to reach results.
He cited the experiences of Wadi Araba, Camp David, and Oslo, considering that Lebanon is negotiating today with an “enemy,” and therefore it may reach a breach in the negotiating path, or it may not reach it, but what is important, according to his opinion, is that the Lebanese state is making its own way, contrary to what was happening in the past.
He pointed out that regional and international bodies were in charge of negotiating the Lebanese files in previous stages, recalling the role of the Palestinian Authority and Presidents Hafez and Bashar al-Assad, in addition to Iran and Hezbollah, which had previously negotiated with Israel through the Germans in 2006, as well as through American mediation in the file of maritime border demarcation.
He considered that “negotiations are not a shame,” but he expressed his fear of the “Israeli expansionist project,” which, according to his estimation, may extend to the West Bank, and on the Beirut-Damascus road, in parallel with what Israel is doing in the Golan and Syria, warning that these developments will leave negative repercussions on the Lebanese interior.
In a related context, Al-Aridi believed that Lebanon is “progressing from what it was,” considering that the state is fulfilling its duties, despite the difficult circumstances.
He pointed out that Qlayaat Airport will open soon, and that a direct flight will depart from it to Riyadh. He also pointed out the return of Saudi exports to Lebanon.
He praised what the Minister of Public Works and Transport, Fayez Rasamny, is doing, considering that the work completed at the airport, the port, and the factory constitutes a “major achievement.” He also praised the ministry’s workshop in the field of asphalt and other projects, considering it advanced and “exemplary,” and far, in his opinion, from partisan, political, sectarian, and sectarian favoritism, contrary to what this or that party says. He said that the minister “is for all the Lebanese,” and this is what distinguishes the minister. He painted me.
Emirati delegation, investment and return of depositors’ money
Al-Aridi indicated that an Emirati delegation will arrive in Lebanon, considering that the step is the most prominent at the current stage, and recalling the role that the United Arab Emirates played in Lebanon, recalling the position of the builder of the Emirates, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, during the war that broke out in 1976, when he said: “Raise your hands from Lebanon.”
He believed that what the UAE leadership is doing today is in the interest of Lebanon, after the ban was lifted, but he stressed the need to secure a “solid ground for investment” and return the money of Emirati depositors and investors.
He pointed out that the Emirati investor Sheikh Ahmed Habtoor, who was one of the most prominent investors in Lebanon during the most difficult circumstances, called on the state not to turn its back on investors, and to work to secure a fair and independent judiciary, return the money of Emirati depositors and investors, especially to Sheikh Khalaf, and secure the requirements required for investment away from bureaucracy.
He considered that providing these conditions would encourage investments in light of the positive climate currently available, “if the state manages this file well.”
On another line, Al-Aridi praised the cooperation of the Lebanese government with the Council of the South, headed by Engineer Hashem Haider, pointing to the role that the council plays on the field with the displaced, and to its continuous work day and night, which was almost the only one supported by the government and some institutions, in the areas of relief, restoration, and others.
However, he stressed the need for a “large comprehensive reconstruction project,” considering that this process cannot begin at the required pace in light of the continuing Israeli attacks and the scene remaining unclear regarding the level of war or reaching a settlement.
In another context, Al-Aridi criticized what he described as Iran’s continued “hatred against the Gulf states and others,” considering that this matter is “rejected and condemned by all Lebanese.”
He referred to the position of Tripoli MP Dr. Ihab Matar, who, on the anniversary of the bombing of the Al-Taqwa and Al-Salam mosques, condemned what he described as a “cowardly and barbaric act.” He also condemned Iranian aggressive actions against the Gulf states, and in return, he welcomed the return of Lebanese exports to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, considering that these steps constitute “positive steps and great achievements” at the current stage.
In a related context, Al-Aridi saw that what some tried to portray as a dispute between the Sunnis and the army “did not bear fruit by some,” pointing to the visit of Beirut MP Nabil Badr to the south and his meeting with the army and the steadfast people of the south, in addition to his cooperation with the military establishment and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri on the issue of the displaced and preserving Beirut’s privacy.
He pointed out the presence of a martyr from the New Road area, Colonel Nour Al-Jamal, considering that these facts confirm, in his opinion, that the campaigns that tried to suggest the existence of a rift between the Sunnis and the army did not achieve their goals.
He also considered that these campaigns came in the context of the “bombardment” on the general amnesty law, which he described as an achievement at this stage.
In this context, Al-Aridi stressed the importance of what was proposed by former Minister of Economy Raed Khoury, in terms of the necessity of securing an incubating environment for investment away from bureaucracy, and facilitating everything related to investors, and the importance of close cooperation between the public and private sectors, noting that the role of the private sector is to carry out its duties, without interference from the state, given the ability of this sector to succeed and produce, and thus this is what the state benefits from, and these titles constitute basic pillars that should be adhered to in light of the crises and suffering it is experiencing. Lebanon at various levels.
