In recent weeks, the Ali Al-Taher Heights have transformed from a geographical point in southern Lebanon into a broader testing ground for Hezbollah’s future and its ability to protect its military structure and impose the rules of the game, while Iran, according to an Israeli reading, is trying to become a party in the conflict surrounding the region.
According to an article by Reserve Brigadier General Zvika Haimovitch, former commander of the Israeli air defense system and current strategic advisor, in the “Israel Hayom” newspaper, the highlands derive their importance from their geographical location and proximity to Beaufort Citadel and Nabatieh, as they overlook large areas of southern Lebanon and give the party controlling them a great field advantage.
The writer says that over the past 20 years, Hezbollah has established a vast underground infrastructure in the region, extending from storing weapons that the party considers “balance breakers,” all the way to using them as a starting point for the secret deployment of its forces in preparation for launching an attack on Israel. From this standpoint, the battle is not seen as a struggle on a hill, but rather an attempt to strike one of the centers of gravity in the military system that the party built and deprive it of an essential element of its doctrine and capabilities.
Haimovitch believes that if Hezbollah loses its ability to maintain strategic positions south of the Litani, while its structure is destroyed in a way that prevents it from returning to it and rehabilitating it after the Israeli army withdraws, it will find itself facing two difficult choices: to continue fighting in defense of every concentration point, which imposes on it more attrition and losses, or to adapt to a new reality in which the Lebanese army and other international parties demand that it gradually abandon its entire military structure in the south.
The writer considers that withdrawing from or abandoning a strategic location may be interpreted within Lebanon and among Hezbollah supporters as an admission of defeat, while insisting on maintaining a military presence in the south may lead to continued confrontation with Israel, expanded targeting of the party’s structure, and escalating pressure on it from the Lebanese state and the international community.
According to the article, the confrontation over Ali Al-Taher coincides with political efforts to reach a broader settlement in which Hezbollah is required to disarm and hand over control of certain areas to the Lebanese state. He added that Iran is aware of the implications of what is happening, linking this to messages that he said were transmitted through the United States regarding the possibility of Tehran carrying out a broad response if the Israeli army continues its operations in the region.
However, the writer acknowledges that, despite reports circulated by the media, it is not certain that Iranian elements were present inside the site, considering that its current absence allows Israel to remove important infrastructure and keep Hezbollah facing its dilemma.
In contrast to the difficult choices facing the party and Iran, Haimovic believes that Israel is also required to make a decisive decision, warning that delaying the destruction of the entire structure in the highlands may be understood as procrastination or submission to Iranian deterrence, and may lead to escalation of international pressure and withdrawal before completing the mission.
He points out that the challenge lies in preventing the destruction of this strategic structure from turning into a regional escalation at a sensitive time, in light of the Jewish holidays, elections in Israel and the United States, and the spread of the Israeli army on several fronts.
The writer calls on Israel not to back down from the complete destruction of the infrastructure in the highlands, considering that what is happening represents a “one-time opportunity” to stabilize the transformation that Hezbollah is going through and inflict a major blow on its positions south of the Litani, and that the opportunities for achieving gains outweigh, from his point of view, the risks of escalation.
He concludes that the loss of Ali al-Tahir Heights, if it becomes a starting point for a broader abandonment of Hezbollah’s military structure in southern Lebanon, may be remembered in the future as the station at which a strategic change in the party’s status and the path of its disarmament began.
