The Israeli security establishment has raised its alert level to its highest level on the eve of the Jewish New Year, which begins on Friday evening, amid estimates that Hezbollah, Hamas, or Iran may attempt to exploit the holiday period to carry out a surprise attack on one of the burning fronts.
According to a report by journalist Avi Ashkenazi in the Jerusalem Post newspaper, the October 7 attacks are still strongly present within the Israeli army and security establishment, and directly affect preparations for any similar scenario during the holidays.
The report indicated that Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz’s statement that “the Iranians like to attack on Jewish holidays because they hate the Jews,” seemed childish in its wording, but, according to the writer, it carried a serious content, as the security establishment believes that the possibility of a security incident occurring is high, especially in light of the ongoing war in the Arabian Gulf and all fronts remaining active.
On Sunday, the Israeli National Security Council issued instructions to Israelis abroad to take precautionary measures, including reducing their level of visibility in the countries they visit. However, the report found that implementing this recommendation in practice seems difficult, given the heavy Israeli presence in tourist areas in Thailand, Vietnam, Greece, Cyprus, and Miami, in addition to their spread in brand stores such as “Zara,” “Nike,” and “Adidas” throughout Europe.
The Israeli security establishment acknowledges that, as of Sunday evening, it had no specific indications of an imminent attack abroad. However, it believes that cells affiliated with Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement possess the motivation and ability, along with combat teams affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which, according to Israeli estimates, can operate in various regions around the world.
Just before 5:00 am on Sunday, the Israeli army was summoned with all its formations to participate in a surprise maneuver called “Alot Hashahar 2.0,” which aimed to test its readiness for a comprehensive war without prior warning, extending from Lebanon and Syria to the eastern borders, the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and the southern borders.
The report believes that the series of incidents that took place on multiple fronts during one day reflects the extent of the existing tension, considering that the question is no longer whether a security incident will occur, but rather when it will happen and where, at a time when the Israeli army is carrying out defensive operations in various arenas.
In Syria, the forces of the “Bashan” division moved after they spotted 3 people approaching the border fence from the Syrian side, amid estimates that they intended to plant an explosive device. Israeli forces launched an armed drone towards them, which likely led to the death of one of them.
As for Lebanon, the Israeli army announced the completion of combing the tunnels in Ali Al-Taher Heights. The security establishment estimates that Hezbollah, which Israel says has suffered a severe blow to morale, may seek to carry out an operation aimed at embarrassing the Israeli army and causing casualties among its soldiers or targeting the northern settlements.
In the West Bank, the report describes the situation as highly volatile. On Sunday, the forces of the “Menashe” Brigade carried out an operation in the village of Aqaba in the northern West Bank, during which they found a missile and weapons, including an M16 rifle and large quantities of explosives prepared to manufacture explosive devices.
The operation came after thwarting a series of attacks over the past few days, including the arrest of a cell consisting of 5 people in the Qabatiya area, on Friday, and a rifle and ammunition were seized from them, amid estimates that they were preparing to carry out a major attack in the northern West Bank.
The Gaza Strip still occupies a primary focus of attention of the Israeli army, which believes that Hamas may attempt to carry out a major attack coinciding with the anniversary of the October 7 attacks.
In this context, Israeli Army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said: “We are in a tense and volatile period on all fronts, and we are preparing for the upcoming holiday period. We continue to learn lessons, and as I specified, the basic state that the entire Israeli army must be in is to prepare for a surprise attack.”
The report concluded that military preparedness alone is not enough, questioning whether the Israeli political leadership has established clear doctrines to deter various parties in the region, and noting that the Iranians quickly discovered the nature of the American response when they opened fire on an American military ship over the weekend.
He considered that what is required, in addition to the maneuvers and raising the level of alert, is for the political leadership to send a clear message to all parties surrounding Israel in what the writer described as “the forest surrounding the villa in the Middle East,” in light of the growing fear of an attack whose time or front Israel does not yet know.
