As the end of the mission of UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon approaches, an early battle has begun over the identity of the force that could succeed it, while Turkey emerges as a player seeking to reserve its place in the new security equation, in a move that raises clear concern within Israel, which, according to an Israeli report, is preparing to move to prevent significant Turkish participation in any future multinational force.
According to a report by journalist Shai Levy on the Israeli “Mako” website, Israel has recently monitored a Turkish attempt to send soldiers and other officials within the multinational force that is supposed to replace UNIFIL forces in the future.
The report indicated that Israel, which has exerted pressure to end the mandate of the international force in Lebanon, is expected to oppose the Turkish move and work to obstruct it.
The features of this move, according to the report, date back to the end of July, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced, during a meeting in Ankara with President Joseph Aoun, that Turkey wants to participate in any initiative that arises after the withdrawal of the international force, with the aim of preserving Lebanon’s sovereignty and strengthening state institutions. Erdogan also offered to provide assistance in the reconstruction of southern Lebanon.
The report believes that Ankara is not waiting for UNIFIL to leave, but has already begun to view southern Lebanon as a new arena in which it wishes to be present, allowing it to expand its sphere of regional influence, which raises concern in Israel.
The issue gains additional importance in light of the expiration of UNIFIL’s mandate at the end of 2026, while the force currently includes more than 7,400 soldiers from 46 countries.
The report quoted the Israeli army as saying some time ago that international forces in southern Lebanon “failed in their mission.”
He also quoted a senior official in the Israeli army as saying: “Hezbollah grew stronger under their watch and built an armed army,” adding: “There were cases of cooperation between soldiers from UNIFIL and members of Hezbollah. They conveyed information to them and turned a blind eye to combat means. This is happening until now,” according to his claim.
However, the report considered that replacing UNIFIL soldiers with Turkish soldiers does not necessarily mean, from the Israeli point of view, an improvement in the situation, but may even complicate it further.
As is the case in Gaza and Syria, officials in the Israeli Northern Command believe that the presence of Turkish forces may lead to increased field complications and may impose restrictions on Israel’s movements for fear of harming Turkish soldiers.
According to the report, the Israeli security establishment says that any area witnessing a Turkish presence may be used by Erdogan as a means to limit Israel’s freedom of movement and exert pressure on it.
In parallel with the Turkish move, Ankara is not alone in its efforts to form new security arrangements in southern Lebanon, as France and Italy are working to push for a multinational framework, while Germany supports the idea of establishing a European force in the south.
In recent days, the European Union has also been working on developing a mission aimed at helping the Lebanese army build its capabilities.
The report quoted Reuters as saying that more than 10 countries in the European Union are ready to contribute to this European mission, which is supposed to begin next October. However, at the current stage, it does not aim to replace UNIFIL, but rather to work alongside it.
In the midst of this race, the report believes that Türkiye brings with it an element that is not available to other European countries, which is a clear ambition to expand its influence in the Middle East.
Ankara is already present in Syria, and its relationship with Lebanon is developing. In recent years, it has provided the Lebanese army with equipment, spare parts, and ammunition, in addition to providing it with training.
Turkey has previously also participated in the UNIFIL forces, especially within the naval component, which means, according to the Israeli report, that it has already begun to establish the foothold that worries Israel.
Today, according to the report, Ankara is seeking to move to a new phase, which is not limited to assisting the Lebanese army, but rather includes integration into the security mechanism that may be established in the south of the country after the end of the UNIFIL mission.
The report indicated that President Joseph Aoun, for his part, seeks to prevent a security vacuum after the departure of international forces, and that the options presented include European and Turkish participation, leading to a model that is supported by NATO, along with Arab and Islamic countries.
From the Israeli point of view, Turkey under Erdogan is not considered a neutral country, and therefore the possibility of deploying Turkish soldiers in southern Lebanon, in the area where, according to the Israeli perception, Hezbollah’s military assets are supposed to be dismantled, raises a clear Israeli objection.
The report stresses that this objection is not limited to the deployment of Turkish soldiers only, but extends to any significant Turkish participation in the future security force.
Thus, it seems that the discussion about the post-UNIFIL phase is no longer limited to the form of the force that will succeed it, but rather has become part of a broader regional competition for influence in southern Lebanon, with Ankara seeking to consolidate its presence in exchange for early Israeli action to prevent it from becoming a major player on the border.
