The recent Russian missile attacks on Kiev revealed the extent of the crisis facing Ukraine in air defense, after data showed that the stock of Patriot interceptor missiles was declining to dangerous levels, at a time when Moscow is exploiting this shortage to intensify field pressure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is preparing to wage a new diplomatic battle at the NATO summit in Ankara.
According to a report by journalists Arnon Shvartsman and Shai Levy on the “Mako” website, the recent Russian missile attack on Kiev, which led to the death of at least 14 people and the injury of dozens of others, revealed Ukraine’s severe shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles, which is the American system that is its central tool in confronting ballistic missiles.
The report quoted the Wall Street Journal as saying that published data showed that Ukraine was unable to intercept any of the 23 Russian ballistic missiles that fell in the Kiev region during the early morning hours of Monday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday evening, hours before the latest Russian bombing: “Patriot missiles are the priority, and the desire of the United States is not enough to fill the shortfall.” During the NATO summit in Ankara, Zelensky is expected to ask Western countries to transfer more interceptor missiles to Ukraine from their limited stocks.
The shortage is not limited to Ukraine alone, as about 20 countries are waiting to obtain Patriot interceptor missiles, in light of the decline in the global stock of them, while the production process may take more than two years. This shortage was exacerbated this year by the war in Iran, as the United States and the Gulf states used dozens of interceptor missiles, almost daily, to defend against Iranian ballistic missiles.
In parallel with the difficulties faced by the Russian army in advancing on the battlefield, Moscow is working to intensify its missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities. Ukraine succeeds in intercepting most long-range Russian aircraft, but the shortage of anti-missile interceptors has led to a rise in the civilian cost of the war. Just on Thursday, Russia launched one of the largest attacks on Kiev since the start of the war, leaving 31 dead and more than 100 injured.
On Monday morning, columns of smoke were seen rising over Kiev, while emergency teams were searching the rubble of an apartment building in which 5 people were killed. In another part of the city, according to emergency services, a missile fell in the courtyard of another residential building, killing 6 people. In the area surrounding Kiev, an additional 3 people were killed, 15 others were injured, and homes were damaged after Russia hit a factory and a warehouse.
Video clips on social media showed large secondary explosions, raising the possibility of ammunition stored in the place, but Ukraine did not confirm the Russian story that the targets were military installations.
“Every delay in our air defense missiles, the Patriot missiles, means the loss of lives and encourages Russia to continue the war,” Zelensky said. He added: “Patriot missiles are not needed now in warehouses, but rather in Patriot units inside Ukraine.”
According to the report, the Patriot system is the only method that has proven effective for Ukraine in reliably intercepting ballistic missiles. According to official data analyzed by the Center for Information Resilience, an open source investigation center based in Britain, this year Ukraine intercepted about 90% of long-range Russian aircraft and 80% of the 722 cruise missiles launched at it. On the other hand, 70% of the 522 ballistic missiles launched by Russia were able to penetrate Ukrainian defenses, and this percentage is expected to deteriorate further as Kiev’s stock of Patriot interceptor missiles continues to run out.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihanat said: “We need the means to shoot down ballistic missiles. We have enough systems, and what we need is a regular supply of missiles.” He added: “It is clear that the Russians are exploiting the fact that there is a serious shortage.”
The Ukrainian Defense Minister said last week that he had asked about 40 partner countries to quickly transfer Patriot missiles from their stocks to Ukraine, in exchange for a promise of new shipments that Kiev expects to receive starting next year. Ukraine is also working on developing its own ballistic interception systems, and is trying to obtain licenses from the United States to produce Patriot interceptor missiles on its territory, but these two paths are not expected to fill Kiev’s air defense gap soon.
According to what was published by the Wall Street Journal, the American company Lockheed Martin announced that it will increase production more than three times to reach about 2,000 interceptor missiles annually, but this will not be achieved until 2030. The cost of each interceptor missile is about $2 million.
Kiev has placed large orders for Patriot missiles, mainly with European funding, including about 100 PAC-2 interceptor missiles from a new factory in Germany. This factory, run by the European missile company MBDA, is only supposed to start operating at the end of this year.
In contrast, NATO countries carry out their own orders for interceptor missiles, with the aim of strengthening a general European air defense system, which analysts describe as “full of loopholes.” Between waiting for production and the Allies’ race for stocks, Ukraine finds itself facing a harsh equation: every missile that does not reach the front may turn into a new loophole in the skies of Kiev.
