Walid Al-Labyan
The United States of America faces various security challenges to ensure the success of the World Cup, which begins in a few days, as it hosts 78 matches distributed across 11 cities on its soil, while Mexico and Canada share in hosting 26 additional matches. Terrorist threats are among the most prominent risks that may undermine this global event, not only because of the human and material losses they may cause, but also because of the political and security repercussions they may have that affect the prestige of the host country and its international standing.
A study prepared by the Center for Strategic and International Studies indicates that the terrorist threat does not come from a single source, but rather from a wide group of actors whose motives and methods differ. At the forefront of these threats are the cross-border jihadist organizations, led by ISIS and its branches, in addition to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Group to Support Islam and Muslims, which is currently considered the most dangerous in Africa. Although the capabilities of these organizations have declined compared to what they were during the past decade, they still possess the desire to carry out operations targeting the United States or interests related to the tournament.
In addition to jihadist organizations, countries sponsoring or supporting terrorist acts emerge as a potential threat factor. Iran is considered one of the most prominent sources of threat, especially in light of regional tensions and the ongoing war between it and the United States and Israel. Therefore, it is not unlikely that parties linked to Tehran will resort to carrying out operations targeting gatherings or facilities linked to the tournament.
Russia is also a potential source of acts of sabotage or operations aimed at confusing the event and embarrassing the United States in front of the world, especially with what is happening in the war on Ukraine in addition to the transgressions that Russia intends to carry out against European countries.
The risks are not limited to political and military actors, as intelligence reports indicate that some Mexican cartels, classified as foreign terrorist organizations, may pose an additional threat, especially to matches and facilities located near the southern border of the United States, as a result of the ongoing conflict between them and the Mexican and American authorities.
Internally, the most likely danger is represented by “lone wolves” or small extremist groups that adopt different ideological ideas. This type of terrorism is characterized by ease of implementation and difficulty in predicting, as it relies on extremist individuals who move independently, using available weapons or simple means, to inflict the largest possible number of victims.
Possible attack methods vary from shooting at mass gatherings, ramming vehicles, and using improvised explosive devices, in addition to the possibility of employing drones, which is a method now used by countries and armed organizations such as Iran, Russia, Hezbollah, and ISIS in various conflict arenas.
The danger of targeting in such a tournament lies in the large number of soft targets surrounding the matches, such as fan zones, transportation stations, hotels, restaurants, and queues outside the stadiums. These locations provide ideal opportunities for attackers looking to cause maximum casualties and media shock in an exceptional global event.
