The Wall Street Journal revealed that US intelligence officials warned the administration of President Donald Trump, before the outbreak of war with Iran on February 28, 2026, that the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would not necessarily lead to the overthrow of the regime in Tehran, and might instead lead to a more stringent leadership coming to power.
According to the newspaper, officials reported that the then Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, presented during meetings that preceded the war the intelligence agencies’ estimates regarding the repercussions of targeting Khamenei, indicating the possibility that he would be succeeded by more hard-line officials more committed to seeking to possess nuclear weapons.
The Wall Street Journal reported that, before the start of the military operation, Trump gathered a number of senior military and intelligence officials to discuss the extent of the ability of a large-scale attack to destroy the Iranian nuclear program and weaken the regime in Tehran, at a time when intelligence assessments were warning of possible repercussions of targeting the Iranian leadership.
The newspaper also quoted officials that US Vice President J.D. Vance called on Trump, before the outbreak of war, to deal with the Iranian file with caution, and that he informed him that Tehran might be prepared to abandon its nuclear program through negotiations, instead of resorting to the military option.
According to the story reported by the newspaper, American warnings before the war were not limited to the repercussions of Khamenei’s assassination, but also included the possibility of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz and targeting American forces and bases in the Middle East, and these are risks that emerged later as the confrontation continued.
The war broke out on February 28, 2026, when Israel and the United States carried out massive strikes inside Iran targeting military sites and facilities related to the nuclear program, and resulted in the killing of Khamenei, according to what the Iranian authorities confirmed at the time.
After the killing of Khamenei, his son Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the position of guide, and the new Iranian leadership continued a hard-line approach towards the United States, while the conflict continued over the following months, and attempts to reach a final settlement have not succeeded so far.
This information comes at a time when the US-Iranian war is entering its sixth month, while the American focus in recent weeks has shifted more towards sanctions and economic pressures, in parallel with attempts to reach understandings regarding the nuclear file and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Information reported by the Wall Street Journal indicates that some of the concerns raised by US intelligence services before the war were related to what might happen after targeting the Iranian leadership, and not only to the direct military consequences of the strikes.
