The final scheduled for Sunday evening, July 19, at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, brings together the world champion and the European champion. Argentina is searching for its fourth title, while Spain wants to add a second star after its only coronation in 2010.
The two teams arrived in two different ways. Argentina won its seven matches and scored 19 goals, but conceded 7 goals. She suffered against Cape Verde, Egypt and Switzerland, and more than once had to wait until the final minutes or extra time.
In the semi-finals, she fell behind against England, before scoring two goals in the 85th and 92nd minutes. Messi did not score, but he made goals for Enzo Fernandez and Lautaro Martinez, and led the Argentine coup within seven minutes.
Spain arrived more calmly. She scored 13 goals, and conceded only one goal in 7 matches. Austria crossed by three, eliminated Portugal with a late goal, then surpassed Belgium 2-1. In the semi-finals, France closed all roads and won 2-0 with goals from Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro.
The numbers give Spain a clear defensive advantage. The team possesses the ball at a rate of about 71 percent, and shoots more than 16 times per match. Rodri organizes the play from deep, Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo move between the lines, while Lamine Yamal gives the team the individual solution on the right flank.
The most dangerous thing is that Spain no longer relies on possession alone. Luis de la Fuente’s team has become more patient in front of closed defences, and more able to resolve close matches. Mikel Merino’s goal against Portugal came in the 91st minute, and his second goal against Belgium was scored in the 88th minute. This team does not get nervous when the goal is late.
Argentina’s task will be to prevent Rodri from managing the match freely. Scaloni may field a close midfield that includes Rodrigo De Paul, Alexis McAllister and Enzo Fernandez, with an additional anchor player to protect the depth. Leaving the ball to Spain for long periods would be risky, but advanced pressing could open up space for Yamal and Olmo.
On the other hand, Spain will face a test that it has not faced in its previous matches. Messi does not need complete control to make the difference. One pass was enough to turn the semi-final against England around. The Argentine captain reaches the final match after scoring 8 goals in the tournament, raising his historic tally in the World Cup to 21 goals and 12 assists.
The presence of Messi forces Spain to be careful when advancing its full-backs. Porro and Cucurella play an important role in building attacks, but the space behind them may turn into a direct outlet for Messi, Julián Alvarez or Lautaro. Here Argentina’s advantage in quick transitions appears, even when it is not the best party in possession.
Argentina also has a set-piece weapon and goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez, especially if the match goes to penalty kicks. On the other hand, Spain relies on reducing mistakes and preventing the match from turning into an open or emotional confrontation.
The first goal will be essential. If Spain scores, they will impose their rhythm and force Argentina to chase the ball. If Argentina advances, it will find more space behind the Spanish team as it rushes in search of an equalizer.
Messi wants to become the first captain to retain the World Cup since Brazilian Cafu in 2002, and to lead Argentina to two consecutive crowns for the first time since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Spain wants to collect the European Cup and the World Cup within two years, and install a new generation at the forefront of world football.
New Jersey’s night will not only be a confrontation between Messi and Yamal. It is a match between a team that knows how to survive, and a team that rarely allows its opponent to get close to its goal. Argentina has the experience and ability to come back, and Spain has the organization and control. Between them, one detail may decide the title.
