The Earth’s population currently stands at about 8.3 billion people, but in a recent study, scientists from the University of Milan put forward hypothetical scenarios based on mathematical models that simulate the future of population growth under severe environmental and economic pressures.

The scientists explain that their study does not aim to provide direct predictions for the future, but rather to test how population growth will be affected if the “carrying capacity” of the planet, that is, the maximum population that can be supported sustainably, is subjected to a sudden and severe decline, which in one scenario may amount to supporting only about two billion people.

According to the mathematical model adopted by the study published in “Chaos, Solitons & Fractals,” such a sharp decline in carrying capacity may lead to a rapid decline in the global population, reaching nearly half in the coming decades.

The research is based on an analysis of population data spanning more than 12,000 years, with the aim of understanding patterns of human growth throughout history, from periods of slow growth in ancient times to rapid population booms in the modern era.

Scientists point out that the current general trend of population growth remains relatively stable and does not indicate an imminent collapse, but they warn that sudden changes in environmental or health conditions may radically reshape this path.

Experts warned that this collapse could result from climate collapse, the outbreak of a global pandemic, international conflict, or a severe shortage of resources.

In a related context, the study addressed what is known in demographics as the “Doomsday” scenario that was proposed since the 1960s, and which expected population growth to reach unsustainable levels. However, the global decline in fertility rates has helped avert these expectations so far.

However, recent data indicate that fertility rates in a number of countries are below the population replacement level of about 2.1 children per woman, with the rate in the United Kingdom being 1.41, and in the United States 1.62, raising fears of a future shortage in the workforce and increased burdens of caring for the elderly.

Some experts warn that the continuation of this trend may exacerbate economic and social challenges, which businessmen and analysts, including Elon Musk, interpret as one of the most serious long-term threats to the stability of human civilization, in light of the decline in fertility rates globally. (Russia Today)