An Israeli report revealed that the US decision window towards Iran has entered a decisive phase, with the chances of reaching an agreement between Washington and Tehran diminishing, amid estimates that US President Donald Trump is faced with two options: a limited military strike in the coming weeks or continuing the “long siege” to exhaust the Iranian regime economically and politically.

According to a report by journalist Alon Ben David in the Israeli “Maariv” newspaper, the chances of resuming the American military operation against Iran will remain open during the next five weeks only, that is, until the start of the World Cup on June 11, before Trump enters into a series of internal entitlements that include the World Cup and the celebrations of the 250th anniversary of the independence of the United States, then the midterm elections.

The report indicated that everyone has come to realize, 5 weeks after the announcement of a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, that reaching an agreement seems almost impossible, “unless Trump agrees to crawl on his stomach and accept humiliation,” as the writer put it.

He added that Israel considers any potential agreement with Iran a “bad agreement,” and therefore does not look negatively at the faltering negotiations, but on the other hand, Trump’s options have begun to gradually narrow.

According to the report, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned in an interview with CBS to confirm that the war had not achieved its basic goals, indicating that Iran still maintains its nuclear and missile capabilities, in addition to its networks of allies in the region.

The report also pointed out that Iran, under the leadership of “Khamenei Jr,” in reference to Mojtaba Khamenei, today appears more stringent and less willing to make concessions.

The writer pointed out that a lot of false information was published about the new Iranian leader, but the reality, according to the report, shows that all arms of the Iranian regime fully recognize his authority, despite his injury, the disfigurement of his face, and his avoidance of public appearances.

The report explained that the head of Mojtaba Khamenei’s office, Ali Asghar Hejazi, has become considered the “second man” in Iran, due to his role in conveying the leader’s instructions and explaining his positions to the institutions of government.

In describing the structure of power inside Iran, the report talked about three main centers of power: the civilian group led by President Masoud Pezeshkian, the military group led by the Commander of the Revolutionary Guard, Ahmed Vahidi, in addition to the political-security team led by Parliament Speaker Muhammad Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Despite the internal disputes, the report confirmed that all of these parties do not want to resume the war, but at the same time they believe that Iran is able to emerge from the confrontation with strategic gains, and are betting that its ability to withstand is longer than Trump’s ability.

Regarding the nuclear file, the report indicated that Iran still maintains capabilities that enable it to move quickly towards producing a nuclear weapon if the decision to do so is taken.

According to Western estimates included in the report, Iran still possesses 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium, an amount sufficient to produce at least 10 nuclear bombs, in addition to the continued presence of effective enrichment capabilities at the “Fordo” facility.

He added that Iran has lost a number of centers of knowledge and expertise related to the nuclear program, but Western estimates believe that it is capable of blowing up its first nuclear facility within one year if it decides to pursue this option.

As for military capabilities, the report indicated that there are more than 1,000 ballistic missiles and more than 200 launch platforms still in Iran’s possession, despite the decline in its naval capabilities and the damage to its air defense and monitoring systems.

The writer explained that Iran is not currently producing new ballistic missiles, but it continues to manufacture drones.

On the other hand, the report revealed that the two main options before Trump are either to implement a short military strike lasting two or three days against Iranian energy facilities and strategic infrastructure, or to continue the naval and economic blockade.

He pointed out that the US intelligence services do not yet have a clear Iranian target that could lead to the overthrow of the regime or force it to retreat, which makes the “long siege” option more likely.

According to the report, during the war, the United States allowed Iran to continue selling oil, but the proceeds went mainly to restoring the regime’s institutions, especially the Revolutionary Guard and the “Basij” forces, which were severely damaged by air strikes.

After the ceasefire and the start of the American blockade, the Iranian economic crisis began to worsen further, as inflation rose from 50% to about 80%, amid a severe shortage of basic materials, according to the report.

The writer concluded by noting that the current battle may turn into a “patience race” between Washington and Tehran, considering that the continuation of the blockade may put the Iranian regime facing an existential dilemma, recalling the late Lebanese President Shimon Peres’ saying: “In the end, it is not possible to eat yellow cake and drink heavy water.”