“Lebanon Debate”
Attention is turning to the growing confrontation between the United States and Israel, on the one hand, and Iran, on the other hand, amid worrying indications that the situation may slide towards a broad conflict in which fronts and arenas overlap. This tension, which takes on intertwined political and military dimensions, is not limited to its impact on the borders of the countries concerned, but rather affects the entire region, including Lebanon, which remains a sensitive arena for the repercussions of any major confrontation.
In this context, the Iranian affairs specialist, writer and political analyst Tawfiq Shoman, provides a detailed reading of the path of escalation and its possibilities in an interview with “Lebanon Debate.”
In an interview with Lebanon Debate, Shoman pointed out that the level of conflict between the two parties is undoubtedly high, and therefore Donald Trump resorted to what he calls the “Freedom Project,” first by circumventing the US Congress, which did not grant him a mandate to extend it for more than sixty days, and he did not ask for that in the first place, but under the title of the “Freedom Project” and under a humanitarian title, he went towards escalation with Iran, to open a corridor that might lead to clashes borders.
Schuman adds that the second point is the goal of this project, which is also linked to an attempt to attract countries to participate in opening two fronts, but these countries have not yet participated in forming a clear international bloc.
He points out that the third point relates to the rejection of the Iranian proposal that was presented on Thursday or Friday.
He points out that Trump believes that Iran should not gain anything, and that the United States should obtain gains without Iran achieving any achievement. Rather, more than that, he believes that some of the Strait of Hormuz, which constituted a point of strength for Iran and a point of basic pressure, must be withdrawn from its control and outside of any role for Iran in it.
Schuman continues that there is a final related issue, which is the possibility of Trump resorting to creating a problem in the Gulf, and then escalating to direct a major strike against Iran, and then ending the war without entering into negotiations, considering that this is one of the points of view presented.
Regarding the possibility of entering into a decisive phase, Schuman confirms that we are facing truly decisive days, unless the reformers intervene in the last hours, pointing out that the Americans say that within two or three days at most there must be an evaluation reading of the American measures, and based on this reading new measures will be taken.
Regarding the impact of this on the negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, in light of the invitation of the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, to Washington, Shoman believes that the success or failure of the negotiations between America and Iran will inevitably reflect on Lebanon.
He believes that some of the Lebanese political parties that are trying to separate the two tracks have a kind of extremism in their convictions, especially since the American admits that the Lebanese front cannot be separated from the Iranian front, especially with regard to the ceasefire.
Shoman concludes by pointing out that the Iranians say that the fire in Lebanon will stop and then let the Lebanese do what they want. They are not negotiating about Lebanon. Among their conditions is stopping the war on Lebanon, while some Lebanese political parties are still trying to ignore these facts, despite American officials and analysts confirming this close connection between the two fronts.
