As talk escalates about possible contacts between the United States and Iran, attention is focused on the impact on the situation in Lebanon. Israeli estimates indicate increasing pressure on Hezbollah, amid fears that it will find itself in direct confrontation without Iranian support.
According to a report published by Maariv newspaper, US President Donald Trump’s announcement a few days ago of talks with Tehran, amid the war and military escalation, has brought about a change in the scene, although the seriousness of these contacts is still unclear due to the major differences between the two parties.
The report explains that Hezbollah’s leadership has begun to realize the importance of reevaluating the situation, in light of evidence of increasing pressure, especially with the possibility of Iran reaching an agreement with Washington to stop fighting with it, without including the Lebanese arena, which leaves the way open for continued Israeli military operations against the party.
In this context, estimates indicate that the greatest concern of Hezbollah’s leadership, led by Secretary-General Naeem Qassem, is the scenario of an American-Iranian settlement that does not stop the war in Lebanon, which places the party facing a more difficult field reality.
Information also indicates that Hezbollah is aware that regional and international parties, including Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and France, may allow Israel to continue its operations until it achieves its goals in the Lebanese arena.
At the field level, the report makes clear that the Israeli army is still operating according to what is called “forward defense,” without carrying out a large ground operation, as part of a plan that ultimately aims to push “Hezbollah” beyond the Litani River, by controlling the southern heights overlooking it.
In addition, Israel does not intend to allow the return of the Shiite population to southern Lebanon at the present time, which puts additional pressure on the party and the Lebanese state at the same time.
In reference to the escalation of tension, the report refers to steps that were considered indicators of this pressure, including the expulsion of the appointed Iranian ambassador to Lebanon, in addition to the launching of an Iranian ballistic missile towards the US embassy in Beirut, in a development that reflects the level of indirect clashes in the Lebanese arena.
In conclusion, this scene reflects the overlapping paths of war and negotiation, as Hezbollah finds itself facing a sensitive stage, in which field pressures intersect with the possibilities of a regional settlement that may not necessarily take into account the specificity of the Lebanese arena.
