According to Euronews, the matter goes back to a Falcon 9 rocket launched by Elon Musk’s company in January 2025, carrying two vehicles to land on the moon’s surface. After more than a year and a half, calculations indicate that the upper stage of the rocket may hit the moon on August 5.
American astronomer Bill Gray and the US space agency NASA warned of the possibility of a collision, while experts are following the path of space debris to estimate its location and impact.
Space.com reported that in early July, NASA organized a discussion session with experts regarding the expected collision, through its virtual institute for solar system exploration research.
Researcher Brian Day said that the moon is a dynamic environment, and that changes and collisions occur on it frequently.
But the most important question is: Can the collision be seen from Earth?
According to experts, the debris may hit the edge of the moon’s disk as seen from Earth. If the collision causes a dust cloud illuminated by the sun, it may become visible, albeit barely.
However, NASA believes that the chances of observing the collision from Earth are very weak. William Cook, an official at the agency, said he believed seeing the event would be “very difficult, if not impossible.”
The upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket weighs about 4 tons, and is currently moving at a speed of more than two kilometers per second, according to Space.com.
Bill Gray, of Project Pluto, published calculations of the potential collision last September, using astronomical software that helps amateurs and professionals track near-Earth objects. His calculations concluded that the collision could occur on August 5, 2026.
Earlier calculations had suggested a possible collision in March, before subsequent data updated the expected path.
The collision is not considered serious, but it highlights a growing problem in space: debris from rocket missions. As the number of spaceflights increases, these accidents may become more frequent.
A similar incident occurred 4 years ago, when images taken by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter showed space debris colliding with the moon. NASA scientists then suspected that the debris belonged to an old Chinese missile, but China denied this.
Collisions with the moon sometimes occur for research purposes, but they are planned. This time, it is about a piece of space debris that has fallen out of its intended use and is preparing to leave a new mark on the surface of the moon.
