Despite the widespread celebration of the US-Iranian agreement as a step towards ending the war and calming the region, a series of outstanding issues still cast doubt on the ability of the new understanding to withstand and achieve its stated goals.
According to a report by Reuters, the agreement announced between Washington and Tehran faces early tests that may determine its fate in the coming weeks, most notably the Lebanese file, the Iranian nuclear program, and the future of the Strait of Hormuz.
The Lebanese arena is seen as one of the most sensitive points in the next stage, especially after the agreement stressed the necessity of stopping military operations on various fronts, including Lebanon. However, successive Israeli statements, most notably the positions of Defense Minister Yisrael Katz refusing to withdraw from Lebanon, raised questions about the agreement’s ability to impose an actual truce on the southern front.
On the Iranian side, basic issues are still postponed to the negotiations for the next sixty days, most notably the fate of the nuclear program, the stock of highly enriched uranium, and the ballistic missile program, in addition to Tehran’s regional influence and its relations with the powers allied with it in the region.
The issue of frozen Iranian funds and economic sanctions also emerges as one of the most prominent points of disagreement, in light of Washington’s insistence on linking any easing of sanctions or release of funds to Iran’s level of compliance with the terms of the agreement, in exchange for Iranian expectations of obtaining early economic steps.
As for the Strait of Hormuz, which was one of the most prominent addresses of the agreement, it in turn remains a focus of tension. While US President Donald Trump announced its reopening to international navigation, Tehran is keen to have a broader role in managing this vital sea lane, amid reports of adding arrangements and fees related to the strait during the final hours of negotiations.
Observers believe that the agreement has succeeded so far in halting the slide toward a broader confrontation, but it still faces complex challenges that may determine its future, especially since many essential files have been postponed to subsequent negotiating rounds, the results of which have not yet been decided.
