Three high-level Iranian sources said that the American campaign aimed at strangling the Iranian economy, by restricting oil exports and tightening the noose on sanctions evasion, has become more severe on Tehran.
According to Reuters, Washington has sought during the past few weeks to escalate economic pressure on Iran, in an attempt to extract concessions in any future negotiations, after the conflict that has been ongoing for 6 months failed to achieve this.
The sources explained that despite the success of the Iranian authorities over the decades in circumventing sanctions, the recent US measures have placed them in a more sensitive position, with a reduction in the channels available to secure foreign currencies or purchase goods.
She added that efforts aimed at depriving Iran of access to international financing networks in other countries have become a real and urgent threat, after Tehran has long relied on them to keep the economy turning.
The emergence of indications that the economic campaign has succeeded in breaking the months-long stalemate would be in the interest of decision-makers in Washington. However, Iran has warned, on the other hand, of the possibility of responding to the pressures with further military escalation, which would raise the level of risks at a very sensitive stage.
Open fighting returned this week, at a time when neither side showed a willingness to make the concessions demanded by the other, which kept the conflict in a costly stalemate, despite the emergence of indications that this reality may change.
While larger amounts of energy flow to global markets through the Strait of Hormuz, despite continued Iranian attempts to disrupt navigation in it, the US blockade on Iranian oil exports has cut off Tehran’s main source of revenue.
The pressures are exacerbated in light of an economic crisis that existed before the outbreak of the conflict, with the collapse of the currency and high inflation, while the bombing that continued for months added a huge bill for rebuilding the damaged industry and infrastructure.
The sources said that financial pressures also began to affect Tehran’s ability to circumvent sanctions, after the cash available to pay the high bonuses required by illegal evasion operations decreased.
The Iranian riyal has declined to unprecedented low levels over the past few days, while one Iranian source said that the country only has gasoline stocks sufficient for two additional months, at a time when it is forced to import despite its domestic oil production due to its limited refining capacity.
Iran’s rulers are aware of the risks of an economic collapse and the possibility of renewed widespread protests, after the country witnessed protests in January that were suppressed by the authorities, during which thousands of demonstrators were killed.
Ali Ansari, professor of modern history at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, said that Iran is under very severe economic pressure and is losing control over the Strait, considering that the question now revolves around whether it will choose to negotiate, and it is likely that it will find itself forced to do so.
The war is entering a new phase in which each party is trying to influence the other party’s internal policy, as a senior Iranian official said that Tehran hopes that the threat of inflation will deter the US administration before the midterm elections in November, while Washington aims to push the Iranians to revolution.
