Question marks are increasing about the location of the new Iranian leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and his actual role in the administration of the Islamic Republic, amid conflicting reports about his whereabouts and health condition, at a time when Israeli security sources confirm that he is still inside Iran, alive and injured, and continues to issue instructions, although his actual influence is limited and under the increasing influence of the Revolutionary Guards.

According to a report by journalist Itamar Eichner on the Israeli website Ynet, a series of contradictory reports published in recent days regarding the status and whereabouts of Mojtaba Khamenei raised questions about the decision-making center in Tehran, and the extent of his actual control over the institutions of government.

The uproar began after an “Israeli security source” was quoted as saying that Khamenei is not even present inside Iran, but no official body in Israel has confirmed this claim.

According to the report, the messages and directives attributed to Khamenei are actually written by Revolutionary Guard Commander Ahmed Vahidi and other senior officials in the force.

However, Israeli security sources familiar with the file denied this story, and said that the information available to Israel indicates that Khamenei is alive and present inside Iran.

One of these sources said: “He is injured, but he is alive, and he continues to issue instructions, and in Iran they are still waiting for his position and instructions.”

Khamenei has not appeared in public since his assassination attempt in the opening strike of Operation “Lion’s Roar,” during which his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was killed, while his positions are conveyed to public opinion only through written statements.

The New York Times reported about two weeks ago that this pattern of appearance management raises questions within Iran about who is actually running the country.

An Israeli security source believed that Khamenei’s behavior does not necessarily indicate a loss of control, but rather may stem from his fear of an Israeli assassination attempt.

The source said: “The man is not in perfect health.” He behaves in a way that makes it extremely difficult to reach him, and one of the goals of this is to prevent his whereabouts from being revealed.”

On the other hand, another senior Israeli official said: “Mojtaba is inside Iran. He is injured and a very weak character who is managed by Alone. They deliberately build mystery around him, but the truth is that Wahidi is the one who writes everything to him, and he is not really an important figure.”

The Israeli security establishment believes that one of the reasons for Khamenei’s unusual behavior is the regime’s attempt to hide his whereabouts for security reasons.

However, Israeli sources acknowledge that his continued absence from the public and the continuing ambiguity around his situation sends an impression abroad that reflects weakness and lack of leadership at a very sensitive stage.

In addition, Khamenei did not participate in his father’s funeral, an event that Israeli authorities considered extremely strange, and saw as an indication of a real problem at the top of Iranian power, even if the reason for the absence was security.

Bani Sabti, a researcher on Iranian affairs at the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), believes that Khamenei is still participating in decision-making, but his power is limited.

Sabti said: “He is not like his father, who was always the one between the extremist and moderate movements. Although he functions mentally and issues instructions, he is largely incapacitated by the Guardsmen. From giving instructions to fully implementing them and accepting what he says, there is still a distance.”

These estimates are consistent with the impressions of Israeli officials who consider that Khamenei, despite continuing to be an official figurehead for decisions, has witnessed a decline in his personal influence, while the influence of the Revolutionary Guard has increased significantly since he took office.

In parallel, reports in Russia indicated that Khamenei’s first international contact may be with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

TASS quoted an Iranian source as saying that the two men may soon have a phone call or even a direct meeting.

The Iranian source repeated the story that Khamenei does not appear in public “due to the military situation and security considerations.”

If the first contact between Khamenei and Putin actually takes place, according to the report, this will carry a clear message from Tehran regarding the importance it attaches to its strategic alliance with Moscow during the leadership transition and security challenges.

At the same time, Israel avoids drawing decisive conclusions, as some officials believe that talk about Khamenei’s presence outside Iran may be part of a “trial balloon” or a war of awareness taking place between the parties.

However, the prevailing assessment within the Israeli security establishment is that Khamenei is alive, present inside Iran, and still participating in decision-making under strict security restrictions, at a time when the power of the Revolutionary Guard continues to expand at the expense of his personal authority.

Mojtaba Khamenei was injured in the opening strike of the war, and since then he has been hiding in a secret place, while reports indicated that his face was severely burned.

During the last days, he tried to calm the situation in Iran in light of his father’s funeral, through a written statement that he published, but supporters of the hard-line movement demanded to see his face or hear his voice, which he has not done so far.

Between the absence of image and sound, and the increasing influence of the Revolutionary Guards, Mojtaba Khamenei remains present at the top of the regime in his capacity, while doubts are multiplying about who actually holds the keys to decision-making in Tehran.