According to the “The National” report, Iran emerged from the war and had strengthened its regional position, but in return it suffered great damage. Long years of sanctions weakened its economy, then the war came to force the closure of a large part of its oil production, before gas and petrochemical facilities and steel factories were exposed to Israeli and American strikes.
The report believes that the new Iranian leadership realizes that it does not have free time. The Iranian street suffered economically and socially, and stood behind its country at the moment of war, even if many rejected the regime’s performance internally. Therefore, any opportunity to open the economy and improve living conditions may be necessary to calm the interior and establish stability.
The writer recalls the experience after the Iran-Iraq war, when former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to liberalize and rebuild the economy. In 1995, the American company “Conoco” signed an agreement worth one billion dollars to develop the Iranian “Siri” fields, corresponding to offshore fields in Dubai in which the company was working. But US President Bill Clinton halted the deal and then banned US investment in the Iranian energy sector.
The report considers that this moment was one of the major missed opportunities. Subsequent sanctions did not prevent Iran from pursuing policies that angered Washington, such as supporting regional allies such as Hezbollah and resuming its faltering nuclear program. But in return, it distorted the Iranian economy and opened the way for corruption networks, sanctions smugglers, and the Revolutionary Guard, which, according to the report, has turned into “an army that owns a state.”
With the 2015 nuclear agreement, Western energy companies entered Tehran hoping to benefit from new contracts to develop oil and gas. But the negotiations were slow and complicated, and no serious progress was achieved before Donald Trump later withdrew from the agreement.
The report believes that the failure was not only political, but also strategic. The nuclear agreement was very technical, focusing on the details of the nuclear program, but it did not create a network of economic and political interests within Iran and the United States that would protect it and defend its continuation.
This time, Iran needs more than sanctions relief. According to the report, it needs to reintegrate itself into the global and regional economy. This path may alleviate the living crisis at home, improve its relations with its neighbors, and reduce the possibility of a return to sanctions and war.
The report indicates that the Trump administration has shown a clear interest in the logic of deals, even with former adversaries. In countries such as Venezuela, Syria, Iraq, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, good relations with Washington were linked, in several cases, to opening the way for favored American companies in the oil, gas, and mineral sectors.
But the writer questions the large number associated with an investment fund worth $300 billion, considering that such numbers are often exaggerated or closer to political promises. However, he believes that money could actually come if Washington eases sanctions, and if Iran issues a serious invitation to companies to invest.
Iran, according to the report, has great attractions: 93 million people, a good level of education, a strategic geographical location, riches in oil, gas and minerals, a vast, albeit exhausting, industrial base, in addition to a cultural and civilizational depth that gives it the ability to regain its position if the opportunity is managed correctly.
Iran needs huge investments in the energy sector. Old oil fields need to improve extraction operations, and the West Karun fields near the Iraqi border need development, while gas production, despite Iran having the second largest reserve in the world, is approaching a dangerous decline stage due to low reservoir pressure.
The country also suffers from frequent gas shortages during the winter, and an electricity shortage during the summer, in addition to widespread subsidies for fuel, gas, electricity, and water, which lead to waste. Ill-conceived dams also contributed to the exacerbation of the water crisis.
Although Iran has sunny desert areas and suitable winds, its investments in renewable energy are still very limited. The report believes that its geographical location could turn it into a link between the electricity and gas resources of Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the Gulf, and between the markets of South Asia, Turkey, and Europe.
In this context, the report indicates Qatar’s interest in connecting its electrical network to Iran, which may practically connect Iran to the Gulf Cooperation Council network. The report believes that such projects may also benefit the Gulf countries, because they transform an isolated and dangerous adversary into a natural neighbor that can be dealt with economically.
Gulf companies such as “Masdar,” “Taqa,” and “XRG” in Abu Dhabi, or “ACWA Power” and “Ma’aden” in Saudi Arabia, can play an important role in this path, whether through investment in energy, infrastructure, or mining. In return, its countries will benefit from trade, services, and investment returns.
But the report warns that Iran will remain a difficult environment for business. Political repression has not stopped, economic decisions may be subject to security or nationalistic calculations, and government companies tend to prolong negotiations and ask for unrealistic conditions.
The Revolutionary Guard and its companies, especially its construction arm, Khatam al-Anbiya, in addition to economic institutions linked to the Supreme Leader, will remain strongly present. These entities may attempt to monopolize contracts, exclude foreign competition, and obstruct sound business practices.
The report indicates that Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, Speaker of Parliament and a prominent figure in the new Iranian leadership, may be a decisive factor. He signed the agreement on behalf of the Iranian side, but at the same time he is a former commander in the Revolutionary Guards and a former director of Khatam al-Anbiya, and his tenure as mayor of Tehran was linked to accusations of controversial deals. Therefore, Ghalibaf may be either a gateway to a more business-friendly Iran, or an obstacle to it.
The report does not call for the naive belief that economic openness automatically leads to peace or the liberalization of regimes. But he confirms that the policy of sanctions and confrontation has been tested for a long time and has reached its limits.
The bottom line is that Iran, Washington, and the Gulf states stand today before a rare opportunity. If Tehran can treat the agreement as a gateway to real economic reform, rather than as a temporary political spoil, the understanding with the United States may turn into the beginning of a long path of stability.
However, if the mentality of monopoly, corruption, and old security calculations continue to control the economy, Iran may once again waste a great opportunity, as it did in previous stations. This time, the cost may be higher, because the Iranian interior can no longer tolerate additional years of isolation and collapse.
