Omaima Shams al-Din wrote in “Al-Diyar”: In light of the Israeli aggression against Lebanon and the resulting exceptional financial pressures on the state and its institutions, an important question arises: Will the state once again resort to the Bank of Lebanon to finance its needs? If that happens, where will this funding come from? Does he have any state funds, most of which are in Lebanese pounds? Or from depositors’ money in dollars through the banks’ reserves? In this context, economic expert and member of the Economic, Social and Environmental Council, Dr. Anis Abu Diab, explained to Al-Diyar that “the exceptional circumstances we are living in after forty days of war on Lebanon and the region, led to a sharp rise in oil prices, which in turn led to significant inflation globally and in Lebanon,” noting that “for Lebanon, all revenues that were expected declined by 35% in the month of March.”

Regarding how the state finances itself in light of the decline in revenues and the increase in expenditures, he said: “If the war lasts for more than three months, we will have difficulty finding sources of financing other than the Bank of Lebanon,” noting that “to date, the state is still able to finance itself from its own resources, especially since there is in Account 36 of the state in the Central Bank, approximately 9.2 billion dollars between dollars and dollars, and this money is sufficient to finance the state for a period exceeding three months.”

He pointed out “the decline in the Bank of Lebanon’s foreign currency reserves, as a result of the scarcity of the dollar in the markets, and the government being forced to spend, in addition to salaries and wages, additional expenses related to the costs of displacement, and therefore Account 36 declined by about 70 million dollars, due to spending on the displaced.”

He expressed his fear that if the war continues for more than three months, “the only source of funding for the state will be the central bank, because the last financing resort for any country in the world is the central bank, which will have two solutions: either increase the monetary supply in the national currency, which will affect the exchange rate of the national currency, and the second solution is to resort to reserves.”

He explains, “The reserve in the Bank of Lebanon was 12.1 billion dollars before February 28, 2026, that is, before the start of the war, but currently it has 11.5 billion dollars, meaning a decline of about 550 million dollars, and they were spent on circulars and on salaries and wages,” pointing out that “the Central Bank has a free reserve other than the mandatory reserve, estimated at about two and a half billion dollars.”

He wondered, “Will the Central Bank resort to mandatory reserves, i.e. customer deposits, as a means of condemning the state? Or will it issue bonds that are currently excluded, because there is no country or entity that wants to condemn the Lebanese state?” He expressed his fear that “we are facing a difficulty because we do not have financial space so that the state can finance itself,” expecting that this matter “will later affect the exchange rate and the collapse of purchasing power more and more.”

Regarding the six-salary increase for public sector and military employees that the government approved on February 16, he pointed out that “this increase was approved in the Council of Ministers provided that it is issued by law in the House of Representatives, and therefore it is not disbursable before it is issued by law and then published in the Official Gazette,” revealing that “the government has no ability to spend this increase except by finding a legal way out for it, and as long as the House of Representatives does not meet, the government can give an advance,” ruling out that “the state will give an advance before it is approved by a law, because it does not have Required revenues.

Regarding linking the increase to the approval of raising the tax on the TVA, he said, “The Parliament can not approve the increase in the tax on the TVA, and approve the six additional salaries, while the state is currently unable to collect the 1% on the TVA, and is also unable to disburse the six salaries, because the matter requires a law.”

Association of Lebanese companies
The head of the Lebanese Companies Association and member of the economic bodies, Bassem Al-Bawab, said in an interview with Al-Anbaa Al-Kuwait that “the tourism sector declined by 90%, as did the car rental sector, while the trade sector recorded a decline of 50%, the industrial sector by between 40 and 50%, and the agricultural sector by 40%,” adding that “many areas in the south, the Bekaa, and the southern suburbs of Beirut have stopped production and activity in terms of trade, industry, and agriculture, and they constitute between 30 to 50 percent.” 40% of the national economy.”

According to Dr. Al-Bawab, “some demands found their way to investigation, such as the Ministry of Finance postponing the payment of fees and taxes, postponing the payment of guarantee fees until the end of May, and accelerating port transactions,” adding that “the Minister of Economy is currently in Washington for the meetings of the International Monetary Fund, and upon his return he will follow up on the demands as he is assigned to do so by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.” He believed that “strengthening the steadfastness of private companies ensures that they do not fall, which is a matter that requires maintaining their liquidity at this stage as a condition for maintaining their employees.”