In the midst of accelerating international efforts aimed at establishing calm and opening a new negotiating path, American intelligence estimates revealed that Iran still possesses significant missile capabilities, despite the intense strikes that have targeted its military structure in recent weeks.
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Tehran possesses thousands of ballistic missiles, with an ongoing ability to reactivate launchers stored in underground complexes, indicating that the strikes have not completely eliminated its missile threat.
The newspaper explained that these estimates coincide with movements led by Washington to stabilize the ceasefire and rearrange the course of negotiations in the region, including securing strategic corridors such as the “Strait of Hormuz,” and reducing the risks that may befall the American forces and their allies.
According to American officials, there are fears that Iran will take advantage of the calm period to rebuild part of its military capabilities, after a noticeable decline in its missile stock as a result of air strikes.
The report revealed that more than half of Iran’s missile launchers were destroyed, damaged, or isolated, but a portion of them are still repairable or reoperable from fortified underground sites, giving Tehran a margin to gradually rebuild its power.
It is estimated that Iran’s missile stock has decreased by about half compared to what it was before the war, but it still includes thousands of short- and medium-range missiles, which can be recovered or used when needed.
The newspaper also pointed out that Iran’s capabilities in the field of offensive drones have declined to less than 50%, as a result of military attrition and the targeting of production sites, with expectations that Tehran will receive technical support from Russia to compensate for part of its losses.
In the same context, Iran still possesses a limited stock of cruise missiles, which can be used to target navigation or military sites in the Gulf, if the negotiating path collapses.
While US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described the Iranian missile program as “practically destructive,” intelligence reports provided a more cautious reading, considering that Iran is still capable of reshaping part of its capabilities.
In turn, former CIA analyst Kenneth Pollack believed that Tehran has demonstrated a remarkable ability to “innovate and quickly rebuild its forces,” making it a complex adversary in the region.
The newspaper also quoted Israeli sources as saying that Iran maintains more than 1,000 medium-range missiles, out of about 2,500 before the war, while the rest were destroyed or used during operations.
Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Keane noted that the air strikes “destroyed Iran’s defense industrial base,” revealing that more than 13,000 munitions were used in operations, with the aim of preventing Tehran from regaining its ability to carry out large-scale attacks.
For her part, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly considered that the United States had achieved its military goals, which gives it a wider negotiating margin in the next stage.
These data come in light of a delicate stage of balance between escalation and calm in the region, as Washington is trying to exploit the results of military operations to put pressure in negotiations with Tehran. On the other hand, Iran seeks to preserve what remains of its capabilities as a power card in any potential settlement, especially as it links any agreement to the lifting of sanctions. Between these two paths, the scene remains open to multiple possibilities, in light of the continuing tensions and their direct impact on the security of the region, especially in the Gulf and Lebanon.
