Fitch Ratings Agency revealed its strategy to deal with the increasing threats from Iranian escalation on global markets, and confirmed that negative scenarios have become realistic enough to take precautionary measures, including adjusting the future outlook or placing some entities under review in anticipation of the possibility of lowering their rating.

The agency explained in a report issued from London on March 26, 2026, that on March 20, it published a set of “Heat Maps” to assess the level of potential risks to various sectors in the event that a negative economic scenario materializes. This scenario assumes an average price of Brent crude at $100 per barrel during 2026, in addition to slowing global growth, increasing inflation, tightening financial conditions, and a decline in stock markets, compared to the basic scenario, which assumes a price of $70 per barrel.

Despite talk about the possibility of resuming US-Iranian negotiations, Fitch believes that the level of risks has increased significantly enough to take proactive action to identify entities that may face a rating downgrade if the negative scenario comes true.

The agency indicated that it has begun evaluating the companies and entities that it classifies in the sectors and regions indicated by the “heat maps” as being most at risk from the oil shock, while emphasizing that any potential action will depend on a detailed analysis of each source, taking into account mitigation factors such as:

Fitch confirmed that it still believes that the basic scenario, which expects Brent price at $70 per barrel during 2026, is a reasonable scenario, even as the actual closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues until the end of April, with the expectation of a gradual return of supplies during the months of May and June.

The agency notes that the market was oversupplied at the outbreak of the crisis, with high levels of inventories, as well as withdrawals from the strategic reserves of IEA member states. Fitch believes that these factors could keep prices near $100 if the strait closure continues for additional weeks.

Fitch believes that reopening the Strait during the second quarter could lead to oil prices falling faster than markets expect, bringing the average annual price back to $70 per barrel.

Risks tend to lead to higher prices
However, the agency confirms that the risks surrounding the basic scenario are “large and strongly inclined towards higher prices and longer disruptions,” as the negative scenario expects a significant rise in prices to $130 per barrel during the second quarter, raising the 2026 average to $100.

Fitch warns that Iran’s ability to disrupt navigation in the Strait of Hormuz – even after military operations end – increases the likelihood that the risk premium will remain elevated for a longer period. In addition, scenarios such as a ground incursion into Iran, significant damage to oil and gas infrastructure, additional navigation disruptions in the Red Sea, or offensive operations by Gulf states against Iran, could lead to a longer war and a slower return to normal.

Negative outlook…or being placed on a watch list
In light of this situation, Fitch confirms that it does not consider the negative scenario to be the most likely, but it has become realistic enough to increase the possibility of downgrading the ratings of some entities below historical rates, which is consistent with a negative outlook.

“Rating Watch” lists are activated when there is a specific group of developments that may require rapid movement in the rating in the short term, even if the degree to which these developments will occur remains uncertain, as long as their potential consequences for the rating are clear and direct.