A month after the start of the so-called “Operation Epic of Fury” between the United States and Israel, strategic analyzes are increasing that address its potential effects on the Iranian internal situation. Talks revolve around fundamental changes in the balance of power, and direct targeting of the regime’s military capabilities and leaders.
In this context, Claire Lopez, a national security expert, stated in an interview with “Sky News Arabia” that the military operation achieved strategic goals that she described as “destructive to the Iranian regime.” She explained that the attacks focused on three main axes: eliminating the nuclear program, ending ballistic missile capabilities, and destroying the naval force that affects freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Lopez confirmed that these goals “were achieved and had a devastating impact on the Iranians and the Iranian regime,” considering that the current stage is witnessing a move to open the Strait of Hormuz by deploying Marine Corps units, within the framework of operations with a limited geographical scope.
She expected that ground intervention would not be traditional, pointing to what she called “internal forces ready to act,” including nationalist and regime-opposition groups, considering that “the Iranian people who are lurking in their government are waiting for the military part to be completed to open the way for the return of protests.”
Regarding targeting leaders, Lopez believed that the assassination of prominent figures, especially from the Revolutionary Guard, paves the way for weakening the regime’s control, and opens the door to possible political transformations, stressing that any future American-Israeli support may include providing weapons, intelligence information, and means of communication to the opposition forces.
For his part, strategic expert Richard Roth acknowledged that the first month of operations was “militarily successful,” noting that Iran had lost a large part of its naval capabilities and military leadership. But he warned that this success might be “deceptive,” wondering about the nature of the next stage, especially with the possibility of the emergence of a new leadership within the regime.
Roth stressed that any ground move must be “smart” and aim to help the Iranian people regain the initiative, considering that the alliance between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu came as a result of a long series of tensions with Tehran.
In a similar analysis, the two parties talked about the equation of “two parallel lines,” meaning the continuation of military operations in conjunction with the negotiating track. Lopez believed that any negotiation must be conducted from a position of strength, with the condition that the Iranian regime not be allowed to regain its influence, especially with regard to the nuclear non-proliferation issue. While Roth considered that President Trump has no choice but to move forward on this dual path, provided that the negotiations are based on a clear balance of power.
These analyzes come in light of an unprecedented military escalation between Washington and Tehran, which included the targeting of sensitive installations and military leaders, amid escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz and the strategic Iranian islands. While Tehran confirms its adherence to its conditions for any settlement, indications are increasing that the next stage may witness either a broader escalation, or a transition to conditional negotiations that reshape the political and security landscape in the region.
