Cuts in external support have caused the closure of kitchens meant to feed the needy, shortages of medical supplies, and reduced food supplies in some of the world’s poorest countries.

A recent study shows that the extent of damage may increase significantly.

##High mortality

A study published in The Lancet estimates that continued cuts in global aid could lead to an additional 9.4 million deaths by 2030 if the situation continues as is.

The researchers explained, according to the “Medical Express” website, that the decline in support provided by the United States and other rich countries may eliminate decades of progress made in combating diseases such as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, in addition to increasing the severity of famine in unstable areas.

This study comes about a year after the administration of US President Donald Trump closed the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

Other major donors, including France, Germany and the United Kingdom, have also reduced their funding as part of directing funds towards domestic targets.

In 2024, the United States provided about 30% of total global development aid, more than twice as much as Germany, the second-largest donor.

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development expects global aid to decline by between 9% and 17% in 2025, after seeing a 9% decline the previous year.

Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to witness declines that may reach 28%.

## The US State Department opposes

The new analysis, conducted by researchers at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, examined the potential outcomes if aid continues to decline by 10.6% per year after 2025. In a more severe scenario, the number of deaths could rise to 22.6 million.

“It’s dismantling a structure that took 80 years to build,” Rockefeller Foundation President and former USAID head Dr. Rajeev Shah told The Washington Post.

The US State Department rejected these findings, stating in a statement: “Some recent ‘studies’ are based on outdated thinking and insist that the outdated and ineffective global development system is the only solution to human suffering. This is simply not true.”

“Rather than helping recipient countries help themselves, the old order created a global culture of dependency, exacerbated by massive inefficiency and waste,” the report said. “This has prompted development donors everywhere — not just the United States — to reconsider their approach to foreign aid.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio also defended the changes, saying the United States would continue to provide foreign aid, but “in the right way.”

## “The worst is yet to come”

However, health experts warn that sudden funding cuts could damage fragile systems.

David Racella, a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and a participant in the study, pointed out that even the simplest problems could have serious consequences.

“In a complex health care system, even if you take away part of it, you take down the entire system,” Racella added.

Following the abolition of USAID, the United States launched an “America First” global health strategy and concluded health agreements with some countries.

Congress is also considering a bill that would allocate $9.4 billion to international health in 2026, more than double the amount requested by the administration, but still short of the 2024 and 2025 budgets of $12.4 billion.

Researchers stress that it is difficult to predict what will happen next, but many fear that the worst is yet to come.

“What is happening is a humanitarian catastrophe,” Shah said. “For me, it is also a strong indicator that action at this moment is saving lives.”