According to “Eram News”: In the autumn of 2025, European leaders realized a disturbing truth that could no longer be ignored: the European continent was not just facing a temporary economic downturn or a fleeting political crisis, but was standing on the cusp of a profound existential transformation that could completely reshape its future.
Decades of reliance on the political and economic capital inherited from the post-World War II era had created an illusion of self-stability, but this illusion completely vanished as 2026 approached.
The Franco-German alliance has long been the cornerstone of European integration since the establishment of the “European Coal and Steel Community” in the 1950s. However, this axis is now experiencing its worst crisis in decades.
In Paris, the 2026 budget allocated 6.7 billion euros to defense, an investment increase of 3.5 billion euros over previous allocations to modernize the armed forces and fill gaps in ammunition stocks, drones, and electronic warfare capabilities.
But this increase, while necessary, comes at a time when the French economy is suffering from crippling financial constraints that have limited Paris’s role to expressing grand visions for Europe without having the resources to implement them.
The unprecedented French political crisis, with frequent governmental gridlock and the rise of the far-right led by the “National Rally” party, means that France is stuck in institutional chaos, making it difficult for it to maintain its credibility and diplomatic influence. It is hard to believe that European diplomacy will continue as usual in light of these upheavals.
On the other side of the Rhine, Germany is undergoing a profound and unprecedented strategic shift. After decades of extreme military restraint and strict fiscal discipline that turned the “black brake” into a constitutional principle, and near-total reliance on the United States for security guarantees, Germany is now abandoning its defensive stance adopted since the end of the Cold War.
In just a few weeks, Berlin overturned its constitutional beliefs and embraced a leadership role it had vehemently rejected for decades. But the real challenge lies in translating this shift into sustainable policies, especially with the fragmented political landscape revealed by the recent federal elections.
In recent years, far-right nationalist movements and parties have gained unprecedented political weight across the continent. In France, the “National Rally” continues to advance in opinion polls. In Germany, the “Alternative for Germany” party has become a force to be reckoned with, despite attempts to isolate it politically.
In the Netherlands and Italy, far-right or populist parties have entered governments or come very close to them. And in Eastern Europe, from Poland to Hungary, the control of governments that place national sovereignty above all else is being strengthened.
What unites these parties and movements is not just populist rhetoric or xenophobia, but a radically different vision for the future of Europe: asserting absolute national sovereignty, insisting on maintaining consensus-based decision-making that grants each country a veto (“veto”), and the principle that national law should take precedence over European law. This vision is fundamentally at odds with the logic of deep integration on which the European Union was founded.
Politically, far-right populist parties, often with clear or tacit sympathy for Russia, are leading in opinion polls in a year packed with major elections across the continent.
Economically, governments find themselves constrained by slow growth, persistent inflation, and uncertainty in energy supplies. Militarily, most European countries are only at the beginning of rearmament programs, after decades of defense austerity that left their armies weak and dilapidated.
While European politicians talk about “strategic sovereignty” and “autonomy,” the economic figures tell a completely different story. According to the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank’s forecasts for 2026, the European Union is expected to record a growth rate of only between 1.2% and 1.5%, while inflation continues to hover between 2.8% and 3.2% in most Eurozone countries.
Unemployment remains at an average of 6.5%, but this figure hides a significant disparity between North and South: in Spain it reaches 12%, while in Germany it remains at 3.5%.
The broader picture is even gloomier. The European Union’s GDP is about 17.2 trillion dollars with meager growth, compared to 28.7 trillion dollars for the United States with 2.4% growth, and 19.4 trillion dollars for China with 4.8% growth. The gap is widening alarmingly: Europe’s share of the global economy has declined from 22% in 2010 to less than 15% in 2025. While America and China are running, Europe is walking with hesitant steps.
Likewise, the sovereign debt crisis casts a heavy shadow on any attempt to increase investments. Italy carries a debt-to-GDP ratio of 144%, France at 111% after breaking the 3% budget deficit barrier, Spain at 108%, and even Germany, which was an example of fiscal discipline, faces tremendous pressure to increase defense spending while maintaining its constitutional commitments to a balanced budget.
One of the biggest challenges facing Europe in 2026 is determining its position in an increasingly multipolar and conflicting world. On the one hand, China is Europe’s largest trading partner and the main source of cheap technology and critical components, from solar panels to electric car batteries to drone components. But China is also a strategic competitor that is flooding European markets with subsidized products and threatening to destroy entire European industries.
On the other hand, the relationship with the United States, the traditional security ally, has become more complex and less predictable. “America First” policies and threats to reduce defense commitments in the “NATO” alliance are forcing Europe to rethink its basic security assumptions. American pressure on Europe to decouple from China clashes with the complex European economic reality.
Britain, despite its exit from the European Union, remains an important security player on the continent. But its role has become more selective and less amenable to institutional coordination. Turkey, a member state of “NATO” and a complex partner, plays a pivotal role between Europe and the Middle East, and has become a rising power in the field of military drones, adding another layer of complexity to European security calculations.
Today, the concept of European integration has lost much of its momentum and acceptance across vast swathes of society, the business world, and the political class. The generation that lived through World War II and saw a united Europe as a guarantee against a return to disaster is almost gone.
The new generation does not remember closed borders and civil wars, and takes peace and prosperity for granted. In this context, institutional Europe can disintegrate from within, in the face of a political class that no longer knows where the European Union should lead, and in the face of European societies that do not want to accept or do not understand the impact of raw power politics and populist nationalism on their cohesion.
At no time since the 1950s has the centrifugal dynamic been stronger and more evident than now. While European institutions and processes operate as usual on the surface, the foundations are eroding rapidly beneath the feet. “Brexit” was just the first clear sign, but it may not be the last.
The question that determines Europe’s fate in 2026 is simple in its formulation but profound and complex in its answer: can the Old Continent move from managing successive crises with delayed reactions to building the future with a clear plan and a shared vision, or will it continue to slowly erode from within until the foundations collapse completely and a united Europe becomes just a historical memory?
