OPEC shocks markets: Oil surplus expected in 2026

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) currently expects a balance between oil supply and demand by 2026, after having previously predicted a supply shortage. The organization noted that the “OPEC+” alliance, which includes Russia and other countries, has increased its production by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day since April, but intends to freeze these increases at the beginning of next year to avoid any potential surplus in the market.

According to a report issued by the organization, the alliance’s production decreased in October by 73,000 barrels per day to reach 43.02 million barrels, due to a decline in production in Kazakhstan. OPEC expects a slight surplus of 20,000 barrels per day in 2026, compared to previous estimates that indicated a limited deficit.

The organization also maintained its forecasts for global demand growth at 1.3 million barrels in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels in 2026.

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais affirmed that oil still represents 30% of the global energy mix, and called for investments estimated at $18 trillion until 2050 to ensure supply security.

He pointed out that population growth and urbanization in Asia and Africa will lead to a doubling of energy demand, and oil consumption is expected to rise to about 123 million barrels per day by 2050, keeping it a key element in the global economy.