The Israeli newspaper “Haaretz” reported that the agreement “may collapse within days,” describing it as having become “ink on paper” in the eyes of some.
It is worth mentioning that this agreement came under American and French auspices, after a fourteen-month conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
During the eleven months following October 7, Hezbollah was able to drain the Israeli army, forcing Tel Aviv to allocate significant resources to the northern front, which prolonged the war in Gaza and hindered the achievement of a quick victory over Hamas.
However, by September 2024, after Israel carried out “Operation Al-Bager” and assassinated a number of senior Hezbollah leaders, Hezbollah found itself in a fragile defensive position.
Despite this, the fighting continued for two more months, and surprised Israel with the use of offensive drones.
One of these drones managed to reach a military base about 80 kilometers from the border, while another hit the home of Benjamin Netanyahu’s family in north-central Israel.
At the end of last November, the party signed a separate ceasefire agreement with Israel, despite the ongoing war in Gaza, in a move that Israelis considered a political surrender, while others saw it as a tactic for survival and repositioning.
Israeli intelligence sources later warned that the party “will not be satisfied with survival, but will work to rebuild its military capabilities.”
Since then, the two sides have been in a state of ebb and flow: Hezbollah is rebuilding smuggling, recruitment and communication networks, and Israel is responding with a series of raids in southern Lebanon.
The agreement stipulated that the Lebanese government and army, with American and Arab support, would disarm Hezbollah and move it north of the Litani River.
However, a full year has revealed that the implementation of this clause is almost impossible, given the lack of political will in Beirut and the weak military capabilities of the state.
Today, analysts warn that the Israeli escalation in the coming weeks could turn into a new full-scale war, especially since the party still possesses thousands of missiles and drones capable of striking northern and central Israel.
The return of shelling to the towns of Galilee, a few months after the return of its residents, has become a distinct possibility.
Under these circumstances, the administration of US President Donald Trump and several Arab governments are seeking to avoid an explosion, but in the absence of a real change in the balance of power between Hezbollah and the Lebanese state, escalation seems to be only a matter of time.
As the Gaza war nears its end, the Lebanon war is returning to the spotlight again.
