Escalating Tensions Continue… and “One Equation to Restrain Israel”!

لبنان اليوم

In light of the ongoing Israeli attacks and increasing American pressure on Lebanon, journalist and political writer Ghassan Rifi believes that verbal escalation does not necessarily mean the outbreak of war. According to him, whoever wants war starts it quickly and directly, without the need for lengthy threats. Rifi emphasizes that the Israeli war on Lebanon has not actually stopped, and that Israel has not adhered to the ceasefire, but continues its aggression at a lower pace. Meanwhile, Lebanon adheres to all aspects of the agreement. Therefore, we are living in a state of continuous war, not permanent peace.

Rifi points out that Lebanon is facing external and internal fires. The first external fire is the escalating Israeli pressure and continuous blackmail to push Lebanon towards direct negotiations, with the aim of normalization. This blackmail takes various forms, such as attacks, destruction, assassinations, and preventing reconstruction, with the aim of forcing the Lebanese to negotiate directly. The second external fire is the American influence that supports Israeli tendencies, which acts as a diplomatic cover, making the United States a partner in these pressures, through its policies, visits, and maneuvers.

On the internal front, Rifi believes that there is the fire of the American axis that adopts the Israeli narrative and downplays the risks associated with normalization or direct understanding, sometimes by calling for breaking barriers with the enemy and portraying Israel as a party not coveting Lebanon, and sometimes through media appearances to enter the path of normalization gradually. In contrast, there is the fire of the resisting team that rejects any direct negotiations in light of the continued occupation and attacks, and considers that any talk of disarmament will lead to internal strife, especially in light of the failure of government diplomacy to achieve an Israeli withdrawal.

Rifi concludes that we are facing a dead end, unless the United States exerts real pressure on Israel. The ball is now in Washington’s court, which can pressure the Netanyahu government to stop the aggression, allowing Lebanon to abide by the ceasefire and enter into indirect negotiations through official mechanisms. There is an American proposal approved by Lebanon based on stopping operations for two months in preparation for negotiations on the borders through mechanism mechanisms, and Washington must pressure Israel to implement it. But if American policy continues to remain silent or provide unconditional support, we will move towards a continuous escalation or a wider war, and then the resistance may resort to forming a new deterrence equation, which is the only thing capable of curbing Israel in the absence of real international pressure, otherwise Lebanon will remain on this pace of escalation.