Fitch affirmed the strength of credit ratings for Middle East and North Africa countries, thanks to economic reforms and strong financial centers. Despite geopolitical challenges and lower oil prices, the agency expects growth supported by increased production and government investments. It also noted an improvement in economic growth in the region, especially in oil-exporting countries.
Fitch Ratings reported that economic reforms and robust financial capabilities serve as fundamental pillars supporting the credit ratings of countries in the Middle East and North Africa region, despite challenges posed by geopolitical conflicts and declining oil prices.
The agency stated in its report that the average expected oil price for this year is $70 per barrel, which allows most Gulf countries to achieve financial surpluses.
The agency also noted the remarkable improvement in economic growth, especially in oil-exporting countries, thanks to the increase in production and government investments aimed at boosting non-oil sectors.
Fitch had previously expected that the expansion of oil production and the easing of monetary policy would drive the growth of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries from 2.2% in 2024 to 3.7% in 2025, supported by accelerating the easing of production restrictions by the OPEC+ alliance.
Regarding economic activity in the region as a whole, the agency expected that the cessation of wars would lead to a significant recovery after a contraction of 0.9% in 2024, with growth of 2.3% in 2025, which is lower than its previous forecast of 2.7%.
In North Africa, growth is still mainly driven by Egypt and Morocco, despite a reduction in regional expectations from 3.6% to 3.3% for 2025, due to weak economic activity in the Eurozone.
Likewise, Fitch lowered its growth forecast for Morocco from 5% to 4.5%, but it remains higher than the previous growth rate of 3.8%, supported by the recovery of the agricultural sector and the strength of investment and domestic demand.
source: 961 today
