An Israeli research report revealed escalating fears within the Israeli security establishment about the explosive drones used by Hezbollah, warning that this type of weapon is becoming one of the most prominent threats facing the Israeli army on the northern border, and may lead to confusion of the current defense system if fundamental changes in confrontation methods are not adopted.
According to what was published by the Israeli Channel 12, the study was prepared in November 2024 by a research center affiliated with the Institute for Counter-Terrorism Policy at Reichmann University, headed by Dr. Uzi Landau, former president of Rafael Military Industries, and concluded that the currently adopted defensive means are no longer sufficient to confront the rapid development in this field.
The report indicates that over the past two years, small aircraft loaded with explosives have turned into an extremely dangerous threat to the Israeli army forces in southern Lebanon, and on the home front as well, due to their low cost, relative ease of manufacture, difficulty in detecting them, and their ability to fly at low altitudes, in addition to the possibility of using them within swarms or providing some of them with optical fibers that make jamming them more complicated.
The study’s authors believe that what the Israeli army is facing today represents only the beginning of a broader shift in the nature of the battle, considering that the next generation of drones will be more complex and widespread, and that dealing with them requires advance preparation that is not limited to traditional solutions.
The report warned that without fundamental solutions, the Israeli defense system may find itself powerless in the face of this type of threat, especially if it is used in large numbers and in precise tactical ways along the northern border.
In an interview with Channel 12, Dr. Uzi Landau said that the crisis was not surprising, considering that the Ukrainian war constituted a “laboratory” from which Israel was supposed to draw lessons early on. He pointed out that the problem is not only related to not learning from the Ukrainian experience, but rather to the presence of what he described as a reluctance to learn.
According to estimates by the Israeli security establishment, Hezbollah runs a network of about 100 members in southern Lebanon, which has so far launched nearly 160 drones toward Israeli army forces, including about 90 drones that were directly linked to the operator. It is estimated that the party sometimes relies on sending a reconnaissance plane first to monitor the locations of Israeli forces, before conveying the information to the commanders, and then launching a bomb plane towards the specified target.
Landau believes that the battlefield is witnessing a radical transformation, as future wars, in addition to artificial intelligence, will not resemble traditional wars, but will rely more on simple and low-cost weapons, used in large numbers and at a precise tactical level.
The report devotes extensive space to warning against the transfer of military technology used in Ukraine to the Middle East, considering that any attack aircraft that proves effective there may reach the region within months. The study’s authors warn that the absence of an effective solution will make every established target vulnerable to being targeted.
The report also considers that failure to cooperate with Ukraine to benefit from its expertise in this field represents a missed opportunity with serious consequences, especially since the Ukrainian experience demonstrated an unprecedented speed in developing attack and defense means related to drones.
The report monitors a number of weaknesses in the Israeli defense system, most notably the difficulty of detecting small aircraft flying at low altitudes and in areas difficult for radars to cover, and the limited ability to intercept swarms or deal with threats at short distances. It also indicates a large economic gap between the cost of producing these cheap aircraft and the cost of the interceptor missiles used to shoot them down.
The warning is not limited to small suicide planes, as the report expects the emergence of a more advanced generation of mobile planes, led by the Russian “Lancet” plane, which it describes as a suicide weapon made mostly of plastic, which makes it more difficult to detect. Its range reaches about 40 kilometers, and it carries a warhead based on the “Cornet” anti-tank missile.
The report is highly likely that “Lancet” will soon appear in the Lebanese arena within Hezbollah’s arsenal, after it proved its effectiveness in the Ukrainian war against vehicles and armored vehicles, at a time when Russia expanded its production after purchasing large numbers of Iranian drones at the beginning of the war.
The study’s authors conclude that Israel can no longer be satisfied with the large and complex defense systems it used to develop, because the wars of the current era now require smaller, cheaper, and more flexible systems that can be produced in large quantities and modified quickly according to the requirements of the field.
Landau points out that the Ukrainian experience demonstrated the necessity of moving at a much faster pace, explaining that when a new means of jamming drones appears, a counter-solution is developed within a short period, while bureaucracy, legal and financial procedures hinder the speed of response inside Israel.
For this reason, the report recommended the urgent formation of a joint military-civilian task force, which would coordinate all efforts related to the drone file, from intelligence and drawing lessons, to technology, industry, procurement, and bringing new systems into service.
The report suggests that this force be headed by the Assistant Minister of Defense for Countering the Drone Threat, and that it be directly linked to the Minister of Defense and the Director-General of the Ministry, with an independent budget allocated that gives it greater flexibility in decision-making.
For his part, President of Reichmann University and founder of the Counterterrorism Policy Institute, Professor Boaz Ganor, said that the report proves that Israeli decision-makers could and should have anticipated this shift in the Lebanese arena a long time ago and prepared for it in advance.
These warnings come at a sensitive moment on the northern front, where drones have become an essential part of the confrontation equation between Hezbollah and Israel. Between the low cost, high accuracy, and difficulty of monitoring, this weapon seems to impose on the Israeli army a new challenge that is not only related to the ability to intercept, but also to the speed of development and adaptation to a war whose rules are constantly changing.
The study reflects Israeli concern that the border with Lebanon will turn into a testing ground for a new generation of wars, where the prevailing is not only the huge systems or the advanced arsenal, but rather those who can produce simple and effective tools, operate them intensively, and change the methods of using them more quickly than the opponent’s ability to respond.
