Informed sources confirm that talk about a new French presidential proposal to limit the dangerous security deterioration after the Israeli warning to the southern suburbs does not reflect the reality of the situation on the ground. There are no real indications of efforts to stop the war, especially on the part of Hezbollah, regarding the ideas conveyed by President Emmanuel Macron.
Sources reveal that Macron held extensive contacts with Lebanon and Israel following the Israeli warning, stressing the need to stop the escalation and return to negotiations in order to reach a ceasefire, avoid deteriorating conditions due to the large displacement from the south, the Bekaa and the suburbs, and prevent the Israeli incursion and occupation of new Lebanese areas.
But the sources indicate that there is no tangible progress in the French President’s efforts, as Israel insists on its military conditions and refuses to stop operations unless the party stops firing rockets into northern Israel.
According to the sources, Macron criticized the launching of missiles by the party and considered its intervention in the war a big mistake, because it linked Lebanon to the Iranian front and caused Israeli operations against Lebanon.
However, this criticism did not prevent Macron from working to find a solution and reach a halt to the escalation, according to political sources who confirm that French efforts are continuing in Beirut, but they face declared positions from the parties to the conflict, which appear to be open to multiple possibilities, but none of them include any opportunity for a settlement, calm, or ceasefire.
The sources point out the limited progress in any communications, and confirm that their continuation does not negate the difficulty of changing the American and Israeli positions, especially with the insistence of both sides of the confrontation in the south to continue the battle, amid an American “understanding” of the Israeli position.
Regarding Hezbollah’s position, the sources point out the absence of its leadership from the scene, which increases expectations of the difficulty of returning to a negotiating path similar to the last November 27 agreement at the present time, especially after the party’s involvement in a battle that Tehran and the party’s leadership consider an “existential war” whose results are not yet known. Therefore, the field will determine the form of the possible settlement in Iran first and in Lebanon second.
