The political and military complexities surrounding Hezbollah’s weapons file cast a shadow on the general scene. With the overlap of international pressures and internal division, questions arise about the future of the next stage, the limits of escalation or de-escalation, and the possibility of reaching a settlement that protects Lebanon from a major confrontation. In this context, military and strategic expert Brigadier General Akram Seriwi presents a realistic reading of the scene, highlighting the intersection of politics and security.
In an interview with , military and strategic expert Brigadier General Akram Seriwi points out that Hezbollah refuses to hand over weapons and does not accept starting the second phase set by the government, extending between the Awali and Litani rivers, before achieving two basic things:
First: “Israel’s commitment to the agreement, stopping its attacks and withdrawing from Lebanese territories.”
Second: “Reaching an agreement with the Lebanese government on a defense strategy.”
He believes that this rigid position of Hezbollah is met with governmental insistence on completing the implementation of the decision to restrict weapons, as it is a Lebanese decision that serves Lebanon’s interest.
Seriwi considers that the main problem lies in the Lebanese division over such a fateful issue, pointing out that the Lebanese army does not want to enter into a confrontation with Hezbollah and requests a Lebanese political consensus, specifically with the party primarily concerned with handing over weapons, i.e., Hezbollah.
Based on this reality, Brigadier General Seriwi believes that the Lebanese government finds itself in a difficult situation: on the one hand, it is exposed to international pressure and Israeli threats to direct a severe blow to Lebanon, and on the other hand, Hezbollah adheres to its weapons and links it to Israel’s withdrawal. In this context, according to Seriwi, the government is trying, through diplomatic contacts, to obligate Israel to implement the agreement. The President of the Republic indicated that “Israel’s withdrawal and cessation of its attacks would make it easier for Lebanon to complete the process of restricting weapons.”
Seriwi affirms that the Lebanese state does not have many diplomatic pressure cards, but some foreign countries, led by the United States of America, have begun to understand the position of the Lebanese government and the internal situation, and they do not want to see destruction or chaos in Lebanon, which makes the current stage a stage of anticipation and waiting.
He explains that Israel realizes that the current situation is in its interest, and that going to an open confrontation with Hezbollah requires mobilizing large forces, and may not achieve the desired results, especially since intelligence reports indicate that the party still possesses missiles and drones capable of reaching Israeli cities.
While mentioning that Israel has military superiority over Hezbollah, and is capable of inflicting great damage on Lebanon, the party, in return, is capable of carrying out operations that inflict damage on Israel, and deprive it of the state of security it has enjoyed for more than a year since the implementation of the agreement began.
From this standpoint, Seriwi believes that it is unlikely that Israel will launch a comprehensive war on Lebanon that could plunge it back into the “Lebanese quagmire.” However, this does not mean that it will stop its attacks or refrain from escalating, as it is working to continue pressure on Lebanon without crossing red lines that may push Hezbollah to respond and reopen the battle.
He concludes by saying that Israel realizes that Hezbollah is not in its best condition, and will continue to withstand Israeli strikes as long as they do not completely threaten its existence. As for the party’s strategy today, it is to cut the stage and continue without slipping into a major confrontation that will be costly for both sides.
