What does the future of work look like in the age of artificial intelligence? With growing global concern about the impact of AI on the labor market and the replacement of humans by machines, a new report from global investment bank “Goldman Sachs” indicates that the machine-driven transformation will be widespread.
The report explains that artificial intelligence will advance rapidly in the coming years, allowing it to automate about 25% of total working hours. Although some job losses are expected, the report rules out a complete collapse of the job market.
The research, prepared by Goldman Sachs analysts Joseph Briggs and Sarah Dingle, estimates that about a quarter of current job tasks can be fully automated using AI technologies.
Based on data from the US Department of Labor, the report explains how AI will reshape the work environment, change job structures, and impact the skills required in various sectors.
The report indicates that the impact of AI-driven automation will not be evenly distributed across sectors. Some areas, especially office jobs that rely on routine cognitive tasks, are likely to experience faster and deeper disruptions. Data analysis, administrative work, basic programming, accounting, and legal research appear to be among the most vulnerable.
Despite the expected amount of automation, Goldman Sachs researchers do not believe this will lead to a complete collapse in employment. The researchers say: “Our baseline expectations indicate that labor productivity will increase by about 15% due to AI, and based on the historical relationship between productivity gains resulting from technology and job losses, between 6% and 7% of jobs may be eliminated during the adoption of these technologies.”
The report also warns of a possible rise in the unemployment rate in the short term, as some workers lose their jobs before new jobs fully emerge. Goldman Sachs also estimates that the maximum increase in the unemployment rate will reach about 0.6 percentage points, equivalent to nearly one million additional unemployed at the peak of the impact.
The analysis places artificial intelligence in a broader historical context, as researchers believe that technological change has always been a major driver of long-term growth in job opportunities. The report points out that “only 40% of today’s workers hold jobs that existed 85 years ago, suggesting that AI is likely to create new roles even as it eliminates others.”
It also noted that more than 6 million workers are currently employed in jobs related to computers that did not exist 30 to 40 years ago, while another 8 to 9 million work in jobs enabled by the gig economy, e-commerce, the content industry, and video games. (Al Youm Al Saabi)
