-Fadi Eid
After the sharp political escalation that reveals a deep division, it has become clear that Lebanon is committed, in partnership with the international community, to an undeclared timetable for the implementation of Resolution 1701. The Council of Ministers’ decision to postpone the completion of the “arms control” plan until next February is nothing but a diplomatic attempt to address this sensitive file, in light of the escalating Israeli attacks in the north and south.
From this standpoint, political circles are monitoring the intensity of the rhetoric of “Hezbollah” officials, and the harsh response of the party’s Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, to an internal team that supports Resolution 1701 in all its provisions, from the Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories and the cessation of hostilities, to restricting weapons to the Lebanese state on all Lebanese territory.
These circles believe that the party’s attack on Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji carries a message that goes far beyond his stated positions, and cannot be understood in isolation from the existing conflict over the position and role of the Lebanese state, especially with regard to foreign policy and the arms file.
In fact, political circles consider that the statements of the Minister of Foreign Affairs do not differ in essence or ceiling from what was expressed by President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on many occasions. The President clearly affirmed that “the exclusivity of weapons in the hands of the state is not an external demand, but rather a fundamental clause of the Taif Agreement and one of the conditions for the establishment of the state,” and that “the decision of peace and war is the prerogative of the Council of Ministers, and that the Lebanese army alone is authorized to implement this decision,” and that “the circumstances in which weapons outside the state arose have disappeared, and that its survival has become a burden on Lebanon and its incubating environment.”
While the party avoided commenting on the President’s positions, its attack on Rajji, as the circles stated to , “was due to his awareness of the sensitivity of the position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, given that experience over the past decades has shown that foreign policy was not a technical or diplomatic matter for this team, but rather one of the fundamental pillars of its project, where the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and diplomatic missions, in previous stages, were merely tools to provide political and international cover for weapons outside the state, and to promote de facto equations in the name of Lebanon.”
There is no doubt that the divergence in positions on “arms control” reflects a conflict between two projects: the first believes that the ceasefire agreement is not limited to the cessation of military operations, but includes the dismantling of the party’s military structure. Therefore, Rajji’s statement that “the continuation of weapons outside the state provides a pretext for the continuation of Israeli strikes” is merely a description of a reality that has existed for more than a year. The second project believes that “demanding the disarmament of the party serves the Israeli project.”
As a result of this scene, political circles believe that the confrontation between the two sides is no longer limited to weapons or the agreement, but has gone beyond the ceasefire agreement and Resolution 1701 to a dispute over the concept of the state and the decision of war and peace, all the way to priorities and the political project, affiliation with any regional axis, and the transformation of Lebanon into an arena for exchanging messages in the region.
In this context, the circles do not rule out the collapse of the October agreement, which has become clear that the commitment to it came only from the Lebanese side, while Israel continues to expand its attacks, which indicates that the internal arena is on the verge of a new round of political escalation, which may block any negotiating path through the “mechanism” committee.
