Following the release of economic data delayed due to the government shutdown, Fitch Ratings has raised its growth forecasts for U.S. GDP for 2025 and 2026.
The agency stated that the U.S. economy may experience growth of up to 2.1% in 2025, after previous forecasts indicated 1.8%. It also raised its estimates for 2026 to 2% compared to 1.9% previously.
This optimism is due to the strong performance of the economy in the third quarter of 2025, where it achieved growth of 1.1% on a quarterly basis, thanks to strong private consumption, government spending, and net foreign trade.
The report explained that the recovery in equity markets has contributed to supporting consumer spending, which rose by 0.9% in the third quarter, despite the slowdown in real household income growth and the decline in the savings rate from 5.1% in January 2025 to 4% in September.
The report also drew attention to the fact that investment in the information technology sector has seen a significant jump of 14% on an annual basis, which has contributed significantly to supporting GDP, despite the weakness seen in private investment in general.
The agency expects inflation to rise to 3.2% by the end of 2026, due to the lagged impact of tariffs. At the same time, the average unemployment rate is expected to be 4.6%, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice during the first half of 2026, bringing the upper limit to 3.25%.
