Morgan Stanley expects gold to reach $4,800 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, surpassing the levels recorded last year. The financial institution attributed this expectation to several factors, including lower interest rates, a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, and intensive purchases by central banks and investment funds. In a note issued on January 5, Morgan Stanley pointed out that the developments in Venezuela over the weekend could lead more investors to consider gold a “safe haven,” but stressed that this is not a primary reason for its expectations.
Gold recorded a record level of $4,549.71 an ounce on December 26, and concluded 2025 with gains of 64%, its best annual performance since 1979. Gold is generally seen as a store of value in times of economic and geopolitical turmoil, and it tends to perform better when interest rates are low, because its non-income-generating nature makes it less costly in these conditions.
Regarding silver, the bank stated that 2025 saw a peak in its supply deficit, adding that the Chinese export licensing requirements that came into effect at the beginning of this year have raised the “positive risks for silver.” It is worth mentioning that silver achieved its strongest annual gains in 2025 with an increase of 147%, supported by industrial and investment demand, in addition to the structural deficit.
In the field of base metals, the bank preferred investing in aluminum and copper, due to supply pressures and high demand. It pointed to the limited supply of aluminum from outside Indonesia, and the increase in US copper imports, which keeps other markets in a state of tension, with expectations of continued supply disruptions until 2026. The benchmark three-month copper price on the London Metal Exchange peaked at $13,387.50 on Tuesday. The bank also pointed to the strength of the nickel market linked to the risk of supply disruption in Indonesia, although much of this risk may already be priced in, after nickel rose 5.8% to $17,980 a ton on Tuesday, its highest level since October 8, 2024. (Lebanon24 monitoring).
