In an unexpected development and without prior notice, it was decided to hold the next meeting of the “Mechanism” on the 7th of this month, with representation limited to the military side only. This means excluding the civilian delegates who previously formed a point of contact towards quasi-direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel. The meeting of civilian delegates is scheduled to be held in about two weeks.
This decision raises important questions about the reasons for returning to focusing on the military aspect in the discussions, and whether there are new factors that led to the suspension of the civilian track, which aimed to develop negotiations from a limited security and military framework to a broader political level.
Informed sources confirm that this step is remarkable and may be at the request of the United States to circumvent French civilian participation in the “Mechanism.” The sources indicate that great external pressure was exerted on Lebanon with the aim of expanding the composition of the “Mechanism” by adding civilian representatives, which gives the negotiations a non-military character and moves them from the logic of technical truce to a higher level of understanding.
According to the sources, there was a trend to add new civilian delegates, one from the Shia sect and the other from the Sunni sect, to complete what they describe as the “sectarian quorum” that governs internal balances, and to give the negotiations broader legitimacy. However, this path has been suddenly reversed, or has been informally frozen.
The sources do not rule out that the Lebanese state has re-evaluated matters, given the growing conviction that putting pressure on Hezbollah north of the Litani River is not easy, as long as Israel is still present in the south, which the Americans understand. Therefore, returning to military negotiations only, and taking time in moving towards more serious and comprehensive negotiations, may be the least costly option at the present time.
The sources indicate that the participation of civilian delegates may force the Lebanese state to provide clear political answers to very sensitive issues, most notably the fate of weapons north of the Litani, or what is known as the “Mesopotamia” area, which are answers that the state may not be able or willing to provide at the present time.
Accordingly, the sources suggest that the postponement decision is intentional, because the previous military formula of the “Mechanism” gives Lebanon a wider scope for maneuvering, as the military delegates are not fundamentally authorized to provide political answers to Israel’s questions, especially those related to the fate of weapons and arrangements after south of the Litani.
