In an article in the newspaper “An-Nahar”, Salwa Baalbaki wrote: “The year 2026 dawns on Lebanon laden with intertwined economic challenges, one of the most prominent of which is restoring confidence, both internally and externally. The economy is no longer measured by growth or inflation rates alone, but by the state’s ability to build a legal and institutional framework that reorganizes the relationship between public finance, the banking sector, and depositors. Despite the importance of unifying the exchange rate and adopting realistic prices for taxes and fees, these steps remain incomplete as long as deposits are outside any comprehensive settlement and are managed with temporary circulars, which weakens the incentive to invest and save.”
She adds that the second challenge lies in the weakness of the expected economic improvement. Despite international expectations of limited growth and a gradual decrease in inflation, these positive indicators depend on the continuation of monetary stability and the flow of financing from abroad. In contrast, the large deficit in the current account and the continuous pressure on the balance of payments are two fundamental weaknesses, making any political or security shock, or a decrease in remittances and tourism, capable of turning the situation upside down.
Baalbaki believes that the most important challenge is the fate of the “Law on the Financial Gap, Financial Order, and Deposit Recovery” project. Delaying the approval of a clear law that defines the size of losses and how to distribute them fairly, starting with shareholders’ funds, means the continuation of paralysis in the banking sector and the economy remaining dependent on cash.
She concludes her article by pointing out that in 2026, Lebanon faces the risk of being included in the emergency watch list of the International Rescue Committee, alongside areas suffering from acute crises, such as “the Gaza Strip, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Somalia,” and others. Although the humanitarian situation in Lebanon does not reach the levels of violence or disasters present in some of these countries, this classification reflects the extent of the fragility that makes it vulnerable to a rapid slide towards a widespread humanitarian crisis if it is exposed to any additional shock, whether financial, political, or security.
