As we bid farewell to 2025 and welcome a new year, challenges and pressing issues remain present in 2026. The biggest concern at the end of the year is the specter of an Israeli war, which is causing increasing anxiety in the streets, against the backdrop of potential understandings from Benjamin Netanyahu’s fifth visit to the United States, and his talks with President Donald Trump in Florida.
Despite the clear divergence between the American and Israeli viewpoints on the files that Netanyahu carries, a well-informed diplomatic source believes that there is a noticeable convergence between the two sides regarding the Lebanese file. The disagreement, which may reach the point of dispute, is centered around the Gaza, Iran, and Syria files.
The diplomatic source confirms to that Netanyahu seeks to exploit his visit and meeting with President Trump on various levels, both within Israel and on the fronts he is keen to keep inflamed in Gaza and Lebanon.
As for the situation in Lebanon, the source believes that it is too early to speculate on any results regarding the return of the specter of war, explaining that there is an agreement in the American and Israeli visions on the main issue in the Lebanese arena this year and next year, which is the weapon of “Hezbollah.”
Therefore, Netanyahu seeks to expand the margin of his military movement in Lebanon, as the informed diplomatic source indicates. In return, the American president granted an opportunity for diplomacy by proposing a “freeze” of the party’s weapons, in parallel with negotiating within the “Mechanism” committee to complete the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, through the completion of a plan to withdraw weapons south of the Litani and Israel’s withdrawal from the strategic sites it still occupies in the south.
The informed source concludes by saying that fears of any Israeli escalation will remain a threat card used by Netanyahu against Lebanon and the party in the coming period. Especially since the American orientation focuses primarily on avoiding the option of war with Iran, and setting a red line for Netanyahu regarding the annexation of land in Gaza and the transition to the second phase of the Gaza agreement. It seems clear that the Lebanese arena is the weakest link in light of these complexities.
