Tom Baraq Warns: Are We Seeing the Beginning of His Prophecy Coming True?

لبنان اليوم

Introduction

The slogan “No elections without expatriate voting” has become the title of the upcoming political battle, and it has become the first item on the table for internal and external discussion. Today, eyes are turning towards amending the electoral law, abolishing the six seats allocated to expatriates, and allowing them to vote in their places of registration.

But what is happening behind the scenes is more dangerous than what is announced. It seems that Lebanon is on the verge of a major escalation, as external and internal pressures complement each other in one direction: changing the composition of the upcoming parliament. This time, the bet is on the votes of expatriates, as they are the key to bringing about a change in the balance of power. The equation is clear: without the expatriates’ vote, the parliamentary map will remain the same, and from here the calculations begin.

In this debate, the tweet of the American ambassador, “Tom Baraka,” stands out, who warned weeks ago that “Hezbollah may seek to postpone the elections to maintain its base and reorganize its ranks,” but he warned in return that “any such postponement will lead to great chaos, deepen paralysis, and ignite widespread protests similar to the 2019 uprising, which will open the door to external interference and a comprehensive institutional division.”

Today, with the escalating political discourse and the rising level of tension, the question is being asked seriously: Are we really witnessing the beginnings of what “Baraka” described? The failure of the parliament, the boycott of sessions, the disruption of committees, and the threat of street movement… all are indicators of a period of boiling that precedes the explosion.

What is happening today in Parliament is not an isolated event, but rather a first step in a clear escalation path. Boycotting legislative sessions seems like the beginning of a broader path aimed at paralyzing the parliament, followed by paralyzing the government, and perhaps later moving the street under the slogans of reform and electoral justice.

Ostensibly, it is a battle over the right of expatriates to vote. Essentially, it is a battle over the identity of the upcoming parliament, and over the balance of power that will control the future of the country in the coming years.

The Lebanese are facing a scene full of escalation and open possibilities, between those who raise the slogan of reform and electoral justice, and those who see what is happening as a new attempt to overthrow the balances. Between this and that, the question remains: Will “Tom Baraka’s” prophecy be fulfilled? And will Lebanon really enter a new phase of chaos written this time in the name of “expatriate voting”?