Comprehensive Israeli Report Asks: Can Hezbollah Regain Its Strength After Its Losses?

Lebanon Today

Security and media circles in both Israel and Lebanon are witnessing widespread debate about the future of “Hezbollah,” especially after the heavy losses it suffered last year. These losses led to the death of many of its prominent field commanders, in addition to the isolation of its former Secretary-General, “Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah,” from decision-making positions and direct influence in the field, which led some to describe the party as having “lost its eyes” on the front.

A detailed report published by the Israeli website “Makan” stated that “Nasrallah” has been living in a state of confusion and disconnection from the military leadership in recent weeks, after Israel’s success in carrying out a series of assassinations targeting senior party officers, including “Talal Abdullah,” “Ibrahim Aqil,” “Wissam al-Tawil,” and “Muhammad Nema Nasser,” who was the commander of the “Aziz” unit.

The website quoted a Lebanese cleric close to the party as saying: “Nasrallah” was receiving conflicting reports from the field, while field commanders were unable to understand the reality of the situation on the ground and were waiting for decisions that were not issued at critical moments.” He added that the confusion that prevailed in the field leadership led to the party losing the initiative.

A high-ranking Israeli security official told the website that Israel “succeeded in isolating “Nasrallah” from his senior leaders and cutting off lines of communication between him and the front,” confirming that this “isolation” caused the erosion of the command and control system within the party, and led to “committing serious mistakes that ended in his death.”

According to the report, “Nasrallah” believed that the conflict would remain confined within the limits of the “deterrence equation” that had prevailed since the July 2006 war, and that Israeli operations would not exceed the borders of southern Lebanon. However, the events that followed October 7 changed this equation, as Israel began to expand the scope of its operations to include deeper areas inside Lebanon, and destroy missile systems and leadership headquarters belonging to the party.

Between January and July 2024, “Hezbollah” witnessed a series of qualitative strikes that significantly weakened its military structure: In January, “Wissam al-Tawil,” commander of the “Radwan” unit, was assassinated. In June, “Sami Talal Abdullah,” commander of the “Nasser” unit in the southeastern region, was targeted. In July, “Muhammad Nema Nasser,” commander of the “Aziz” unit responsible for the western front, was killed. Also in July, Israel carried out a qualitative operation that led to the killing of “Fouad Shaker,” one of the most prominent military minds in the party. In September, “Ibrahim Aqil,” one of the senior field commanders close to “Nasrallah,” was assassinated.

The strikes also affected leaders from the “Iranian Revolutionary Guard” in Syria and Lebanon, most notably General “Reza Mousavi” in Damascus in December 2023.

The report pointed out that “the pager operation carried out by “Mossad” in September was one of the most prominent operations that paralyzed the communication network between the party’s leaderships, which led to “a state of chaos inside the operations rooms and great confusion in decision-making.”

The website quoted Lebanese sources as saying that some of the party’s field units “did not receive any orders for several days after the operation,” and that “field commanders remained in a state of prolonged shock, wondering about the absence of Iran and its support during that critical period.”

As for the end of “Nasrallah,” it was – according to the report – on September 27, 2024, when he came out of his hideout to participate in the funeral of the commander of the drone unit, “Muhammad Sarour,” before heading to the southern suburb accompanied by Iranian General “Abbas Nilforoushan.” In the evening, F-15I and F-16I aircraft carried out a concentrated raid in which 83 bombs, each weighing a ton, were used to destroy the party’s main headquarters in the suburb, which led to the killing of “Nasrallah,” the Iranian general, and a number of senior leaders.

The report quoted a Lebanese source as saying that “the shock among the party’s supporters was enormous, and many wondered: Where was Iran? And why was “Nasrallah” left to face his fate alone?”

Lebanese writer “Ali al-Amin” points out, in a conversation with the “Al-Sharq Al-Awsat” newspaper, that “Nasrallah” “was confident that Iran would enter the battle if it escalated, but what happened revealed the limits of Iranian support and plunged the party into complete isolation.”

According to the Israeli report, “Hezbollah,” despite all the strikes, “has not been erased yet,” as it still possesses thousands of missiles, drones, and a large stockpile of Iranian weapons. Tehran estimates that it has sent the party about $1 billion since the end of military operations.

However, the report concluded that the organization is going through its weakest stage since its establishment, and that rebuilding it requires a long time and large financial and logistical capabilities, while Israeli circles warn that “neglecting the diplomatic and political side may allow the party to gradually return to the field.”

Despite the collapse of its leadership system and the death of its Secretary-General, “Hezbollah” has not yet been buried. However, the current scene in Lebanon reveals that the organization, which used to dominate military and political decisions in the south, is today living a stage of existential confusion between repositioning or completely falling under the rubble of war.